As the Obama wave rises, Hillary Clinton is busy rearranging the deck, changing campaign chairs, throwing NBC cable overboard and lending herself millions to keep the victory party going.
Yesterday's loss in Maine with a massive turnout, added to Saturday's setbacks, makes the tip of the iceberg more visible. The Potomac primaries tomorrow won't bail out her campaign, leaving Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania as the last lifeboats.
But, to run the maritime metaphor into the ground, will the Democratic Party be able to weather the coming storms over seating Florida's and Michigan's illegal aliens and the role of Super Delegates at their convention?
It all recalls what Will Rogers, the cowboy philosopher of the FDR era, said: "I don't belong to any organized party. I'm a Democrat."
Monday, February 11, 2008
Bush: "I'm Just a Simple President"
George W. Bush certified John McCain as a "true conservative" yesterday.
In emeritus mode on Fox News, the President told Chris Wallace his successor-in-waiting "is very strong on national defense" and "tough fiscally. He believes the tax cuts ought to be permanent. He is pro-life. His principles are sound and solid as far as I'm concerned."
Asked about resistance from the Rush Limbaugh-Ann Coulter wing of the GOP, the President was confident McCain can "convince people that he is a solid conservative and I'll be glad to help him if he is the nominee."
In view of Bush's iffy record on the domestic agenda of the Rabid Right, that may not solve McCain's problem, but the Decider is upbeat about the party's prospects for November.
He pooh-poohed Barack Obama's popularity with his customary political acumen and accuracy: "The only foreign policy thing I remember he said was he's going to attack Pakistan and embrace Ahmadinejad."
"Why do you think he's gotten this far if people don't know what he stands for?" Wallace asked.
Bush's answer was on the money. "You're the pundit," he said. "I'm just a simple president."
In emeritus mode on Fox News, the President told Chris Wallace his successor-in-waiting "is very strong on national defense" and "tough fiscally. He believes the tax cuts ought to be permanent. He is pro-life. His principles are sound and solid as far as I'm concerned."
Asked about resistance from the Rush Limbaugh-Ann Coulter wing of the GOP, the President was confident McCain can "convince people that he is a solid conservative and I'll be glad to help him if he is the nominee."
In view of Bush's iffy record on the domestic agenda of the Rabid Right, that may not solve McCain's problem, but the Decider is upbeat about the party's prospects for November.
He pooh-poohed Barack Obama's popularity with his customary political acumen and accuracy: "The only foreign policy thing I remember he said was he's going to attack Pakistan and embrace Ahmadinejad."
"Why do you think he's gotten this far if people don't know what he stands for?" Wallace asked.
Bush's answer was on the money. "You're the pundit," he said. "I'm just a simple president."
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Democratic Trainwreck Scenario
Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore's 2000 campaign, says flatly about the Super Delegates, "If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party. I feel very strongly about this."
Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida, a Clinton supporter, predicts a "potential train wreck" over disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan, states that were stripped of them by the Democratic Party for scheduling their primaries too early.
Candidates were honor-bound not to stump in the states, but the Clinton campaign did not stop operating in Florida, according to the Obama people, and while Obama withdrew his name from the Michigan ballot, Clinton did not. She won the outlaw vote in both and immediately began efforts to seat their 366 delegates.
If one or the other candidates had a clear lead before the late August convention, none of this would matter. But that is not going to happen.
As a result, generations of younger Americans who think of political conventions as boring talkathons that the networks refuse to cover in full may get a taste of what they used to be like--with floor fights, accusations, recriminations, walkouts, parliamentary maneuvering and lots of overheated language.
The TV networks and the Republicans will love it.
Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida, a Clinton supporter, predicts a "potential train wreck" over disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan, states that were stripped of them by the Democratic Party for scheduling their primaries too early.
Candidates were honor-bound not to stump in the states, but the Clinton campaign did not stop operating in Florida, according to the Obama people, and while Obama withdrew his name from the Michigan ballot, Clinton did not. She won the outlaw vote in both and immediately began efforts to seat their 366 delegates.
If one or the other candidates had a clear lead before the late August convention, none of this would matter. But that is not going to happen.
As a result, generations of younger Americans who think of political conventions as boring talkathons that the networks refuse to cover in full may get a taste of what they used to be like--with floor fights, accusations, recriminations, walkouts, parliamentary maneuvering and lots of overheated language.
The TV networks and the Republicans will love it.
Clinton-Obama: Loser Takes All?
With Barack Obama's Saturday sweep, are the Democrats headed for their own version of Bush-Gore 2000 in which the candidate with the most popular votes ends up losing?
Using the latest available tallies from CNN and Time, my calculator shows Obama ahead of Clinton by 168,721 votes of 15,854,593 cast on Super Tuesday and in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nebraska, Louisiana, Kansas, Washington, Nevada and the Virgin Islands. (He won in Iowa, too, but the popular vote there is a mystery.)
If this trend continues, as it may very well do, Hillary Clinton could lose in the popular voting but win the Democratic nomination as a result of what 796 Super Delegates decide, just as George W. Bush moved into the White House in 2001 based on what nine members of the Supreme Court ruled.
In a year of strong feelings, would such a situation lead to a contentious convention like the one in 1968 that tore the Democratic Party apart and led to the election of Richard Nixon by less than one percent of the vote in November?
I was there as an alternate delegate in Chicago to be tear-gassed by the police of Democratic Mayor Richard Daley, which, to my lasting shame, led to the decision to vote for Hubert Humphrey but not campaign for him, as did others I knew.
Over the years, Democrats have found many ways to lose elections they might have won. Will we find a new one this year?
Using the latest available tallies from CNN and Time, my calculator shows Obama ahead of Clinton by 168,721 votes of 15,854,593 cast on Super Tuesday and in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nebraska, Louisiana, Kansas, Washington, Nevada and the Virgin Islands. (He won in Iowa, too, but the popular vote there is a mystery.)
If this trend continues, as it may very well do, Hillary Clinton could lose in the popular voting but win the Democratic nomination as a result of what 796 Super Delegates decide, just as George W. Bush moved into the White House in 2001 based on what nine members of the Supreme Court ruled.
In a year of strong feelings, would such a situation lead to a contentious convention like the one in 1968 that tore the Democratic Party apart and led to the election of Richard Nixon by less than one percent of the vote in November?
I was there as an alternate delegate in Chicago to be tear-gassed by the police of Democratic Mayor Richard Daley, which, to my lasting shame, led to the decision to vote for Hubert Humphrey but not campaign for him, as did others I knew.
Over the years, Democrats have found many ways to lose elections they might have won. Will we find a new one this year?
Saturday, February 09, 2008
All the President's Movies, 2009
If Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama share a winning ticket, they could end up watching "Casablanca" together, but only if they can keep Bill Clinton from screening "American Beauty" all the time.
In the era of high-def home theaters and huge flat screens, White House movie-watching may be less special, but seeing a flick with the Leader of the Free World is still a major Washington perk.
When George W. leaves and Austin Powers goes with him, comedy will be out. The next occupant will feature nostalgia, romance and high drama.
In addition to Bogart and Bergman, Hillary Clinton confesses a weakness for "The Wizard of Oz," while Barack Obama also favors "The Godfather I & II," "Lawrence of Arabia" and "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest."
John McCain's favorite movie is "Viva Zapata," Elia Kazan's 1952 epic with Marlon Brando as a warrior for the people who is betrayed by weak, scheming politicians. McCain will have to be careful about the conservatives he invites to see it, since Kazan was involved in the Communist-hunting of the time and there is no Mexican border fence in the picture.
A 2003 documentary, "All the Presidents' Movies," revealed Bill Clinton's fascination with the teen-ager covered by rose petals in "American Beauty," Eisenhower's taste for Westerns, especially "High Noon" and Nixon's love of "Patton" and dislike for a song in the musical "1776" that satirized conservatism ("We have land, cash in hand, self-command, future planned, fortune flies, society survives in neatly ordered lives").
But in the White House Home Theater, politics is usually forgotten as the President and friends relax with an escapist night at the movies. When Mitt Romney dropped out, he took a great one with him, "Raiders of the Lost Ark."
In the era of high-def home theaters and huge flat screens, White House movie-watching may be less special, but seeing a flick with the Leader of the Free World is still a major Washington perk.
When George W. leaves and Austin Powers goes with him, comedy will be out. The next occupant will feature nostalgia, romance and high drama.
In addition to Bogart and Bergman, Hillary Clinton confesses a weakness for "The Wizard of Oz," while Barack Obama also favors "The Godfather I & II," "Lawrence of Arabia" and "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest."
John McCain's favorite movie is "Viva Zapata," Elia Kazan's 1952 epic with Marlon Brando as a warrior for the people who is betrayed by weak, scheming politicians. McCain will have to be careful about the conservatives he invites to see it, since Kazan was involved in the Communist-hunting of the time and there is no Mexican border fence in the picture.
A 2003 documentary, "All the Presidents' Movies," revealed Bill Clinton's fascination with the teen-ager covered by rose petals in "American Beauty," Eisenhower's taste for Westerns, especially "High Noon" and Nixon's love of "Patton" and dislike for a song in the musical "1776" that satirized conservatism ("We have land, cash in hand, self-command, future planned, fortune flies, society survives in neatly ordered lives").
But in the White House Home Theater, politics is usually forgotten as the President and friends relax with an escapist night at the movies. When Mitt Romney dropped out, he took a great one with him, "Raiders of the Lost Ark."
Friday, February 08, 2008
Bill Clinton: Playing With Words Again
"I think the mistake that I made is to think that I was a spouse like any other spouse who could defend his candidate," Bill Clinton told a TV reporter in Maine today. "I think I can promote Hillary but not defend her because I was president. I have to let her defend herself or have someone else defend her."
We are back to the meaning-of-is era with the former president redefining the charges and evading answers. In the uproar over his behavior on the campaign trail, no one begrudged him the right to "defend" his wife.
What was in question was his distortion of Barack Obama's anti-war positions ("fairy tale") and his attempt to pass off Sen. Clinton's loss as a racial aberration by citing Jesse Jackson previous victories in South Carolina.
Her campaign has promised a new, improved Bill Clinton, but apparently we will get only the post-Monica version, admitting nothing and still trying to slide away from the consequences of his behavior.
The good news, for what it's worth, is the chastened former President's promise to keep a low profile if Mrs. Clinton is elected.
"I will do what I'm asked to do," he said today. "I will not be in the Cabinet. I will not be on the staff full-time. I will not in any way interfere with the work of a strong vice president, strong secretary of State, strong secretary of Treasury."
But that leaves out Chief of Staff, Press Secretary and a lot of other Cabinet positions.
We are back to the meaning-of-is era with the former president redefining the charges and evading answers. In the uproar over his behavior on the campaign trail, no one begrudged him the right to "defend" his wife.
What was in question was his distortion of Barack Obama's anti-war positions ("fairy tale") and his attempt to pass off Sen. Clinton's loss as a racial aberration by citing Jesse Jackson previous victories in South Carolina.
Her campaign has promised a new, improved Bill Clinton, but apparently we will get only the post-Monica version, admitting nothing and still trying to slide away from the consequences of his behavior.
The good news, for what it's worth, is the chastened former President's promise to keep a low profile if Mrs. Clinton is elected.
"I will do what I'm asked to do," he said today. "I will not be in the Cabinet. I will not be on the staff full-time. I will not in any way interfere with the work of a strong vice president, strong secretary of State, strong secretary of Treasury."
But that leaves out Chief of Staff, Press Secretary and a lot of other Cabinet positions.
The Automated Author
Amazon.com offers 85,888 books written by Philip M. Parker, but Parker himself claims over 200,000.
A professor of management science, Parker has found the ultimate answer to writer's block--a computer program that churns out a book in 20 minutes and never misses a deadline.
The products are no monkeys-tapping-the-keys gibberish but specialized volumes that sell for high prices. Amazon will send you "The 2007-2012 Outlook for Lemon-Flavored Bottled Water in Japan" for $495 plus shipping.
Other books cover such subjects as toilet brushes, Chinese prawns and rotary pumps with designed pressure of 100 psi or less. One of his best-sellers is "Webster's Albanian to English Crossword Puzzles: Level 1."
Parker produces his outsized oeuvre with a machine he invented that, after being fed the formula for writing a genre of book, scours a huge database full of information about a subject and uses the recipe to select data that it then writes and formats into book form.
His next breakthrough may be a blog-writing machine that swallows the news from thousands of sources and regurgitates it to support any opinion that is programmed into it. But, on second thought, that would be redundant.
A professor of management science, Parker has found the ultimate answer to writer's block--a computer program that churns out a book in 20 minutes and never misses a deadline.
The products are no monkeys-tapping-the-keys gibberish but specialized volumes that sell for high prices. Amazon will send you "The 2007-2012 Outlook for Lemon-Flavored Bottled Water in Japan" for $495 plus shipping.
Other books cover such subjects as toilet brushes, Chinese prawns and rotary pumps with designed pressure of 100 psi or less. One of his best-sellers is "Webster's Albanian to English Crossword Puzzles: Level 1."
Parker produces his outsized oeuvre with a machine he invented that, after being fed the formula for writing a genre of book, scours a huge database full of information about a subject and uses the recipe to select data that it then writes and formats into book form.
His next breakthrough may be a blog-writing machine that swallows the news from thousands of sources and regurgitates it to support any opinion that is programmed into it. But, on second thought, that would be redundant.
Raising Arizona, McCain and Goldwater
After Super Tuesday, John McCain told local supporters they were "a little bit closer to the day when mothers in Arizona might be able to tell their children that someday they could grow up to be president of the United States."
That wry comment has a history with relevance to McCain's situation today. Since Arizona became a state in 1912, the only other resident to win nomination for President was Barry Goldwater in 1964, who lost to Lyndon Johnson by a crushing margin.
His defeat marked both the mistrust of "extremism" at that time and the emergence of a conservative movement that culminated in Ronald Reagan's election in 1980 and is now in crisis after George W. Bush's two terms to start the new century.
As McCain moves toward becoming the second Arizonan to make a run for the White House, his candidacy reflects that history and raises questions about another turning point in Republican history.
Goldwater aroused the fears of his party that he was too conservative. McCain is facing doubts over whether he is conservative enough.
Their Arizona temperaments are part of the equation--plain-spoken, proud and independent. Goldwater was just as mistrusted by the Eastern Republican Establishment of his time as McCain now is by the Evangelical Base today.
Will his fate be different?
That wry comment has a history with relevance to McCain's situation today. Since Arizona became a state in 1912, the only other resident to win nomination for President was Barry Goldwater in 1964, who lost to Lyndon Johnson by a crushing margin.
His defeat marked both the mistrust of "extremism" at that time and the emergence of a conservative movement that culminated in Ronald Reagan's election in 1980 and is now in crisis after George W. Bush's two terms to start the new century.
As McCain moves toward becoming the second Arizonan to make a run for the White House, his candidacy reflects that history and raises questions about another turning point in Republican history.
Goldwater aroused the fears of his party that he was too conservative. McCain is facing doubts over whether he is conservative enough.
Their Arizona temperaments are part of the equation--plain-spoken, proud and independent. Goldwater was just as mistrusted by the Eastern Republican Establishment of his time as McCain now is by the Evangelical Base today.
Will his fate be different?
The Economy, Stupid--Again
With the imminent passage and signing of the stimulus bill, both parties have signed on to acknowledging that the economy is the major issue of the Presidential campaign. How will the candidates adjust?
Hillary Clinton has the 1992 "It's the economy, stupid" playbook in place as well as a new, improved Bill Clinton to stump on the good times of his tenure without creating new animosity and resentment.
Barack Obama will be hard-pressed to translate his idealism into leadership on the issue without looking too dreamy on the one hand or too scary with any practical solutions he proposes. FDR would be the most likely template--"nothing to fear but fear itself" with the argument that government can be the solution, not the problem.
John McCain will likely try to overcome his admitted deficiencies as Economist-in-Chief by shielding himself with a panel of Free Enterprise gurus while he hammers away at Republican verities about the wisdom of the marketplace.
Meanwhile, voters will be worrying about whether the downturn is going to be long, as Paul Krugman suggests today, or with rebate money in their pockets lighten up enough to believe that the economy will soon turn around, as it always does.
Shoved into the background will be ugly fact that Iraq continues to consume not only American lives but enormous amounts of money that could be invested in our infrastructure and put people to work.
But as McCain goes about proclaiming "victory" with "honor," making that case may turn out to be a hard sell.
Hillary Clinton has the 1992 "It's the economy, stupid" playbook in place as well as a new, improved Bill Clinton to stump on the good times of his tenure without creating new animosity and resentment.
Barack Obama will be hard-pressed to translate his idealism into leadership on the issue without looking too dreamy on the one hand or too scary with any practical solutions he proposes. FDR would be the most likely template--"nothing to fear but fear itself" with the argument that government can be the solution, not the problem.
John McCain will likely try to overcome his admitted deficiencies as Economist-in-Chief by shielding himself with a panel of Free Enterprise gurus while he hammers away at Republican verities about the wisdom of the marketplace.
Meanwhile, voters will be worrying about whether the downturn is going to be long, as Paul Krugman suggests today, or with rebate money in their pockets lighten up enough to believe that the economy will soon turn around, as it always does.
Shoved into the background will be ugly fact that Iraq continues to consume not only American lives but enormous amounts of money that could be invested in our infrastructure and put people to work.
But as McCain goes about proclaiming "victory" with "honor," making that case may turn out to be a hard sell.
Thursday, February 07, 2008
War of Words
Now that Mitt Romney has packed up his money and gone, those who oppose the bloodshed in Iraq know what they have to do between now and November.
MoveOn.org and the like-minded should be readying commercials, ads and placards that say "If You Enjoyed Bush's War, You'll Love McCain's Hundred Years More."
It's not too soon to start.
MoveOn.org and the like-minded should be readying commercials, ads and placards that say "If You Enjoyed Bush's War, You'll Love McCain's Hundred Years More."
It's not too soon to start.
Waterboarding McCain
The talk-radio torture of the Republican candidate-to-be goes on and, unlike those five years in the Hanoi Hilton, is beginning to show results as he tries to placate Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and other tormentors from the Rabid Right.
John McCain may be making a mistake in trying to win the hearts of the mindless. With the nomination all but locked up, kissing the rings of a mouthy minority may damage his candidacy with the sane Republicans and Independents he badly needs to be competitive in November.
He, of all people, should know they are an unforgiving lot. Can McCain woo Ann Coulter away from her bizarre new infatuation with Hillary Clinton? Can he win over Rupert Murdoch's minions who proclaim "Once John Wins, He'll Make a Left?" Does he stand a chance with the Conservative Political Action crowd who believe he has sacrificed conservatives’ fundamental beliefs throughout his Senate career?
Sending Lindsey Graham and Phil Gramm to plead his case with Rushbo et al is as much a waste of good will with the larger electorate as throwing red meat to a howling pack that will never accept McCain's vegetarian brand of Republican politics.
He would be well-advised to take stock in the old Arab proverb, "The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on."
John McCain may be making a mistake in trying to win the hearts of the mindless. With the nomination all but locked up, kissing the rings of a mouthy minority may damage his candidacy with the sane Republicans and Independents he badly needs to be competitive in November.
He, of all people, should know they are an unforgiving lot. Can McCain woo Ann Coulter away from her bizarre new infatuation with Hillary Clinton? Can he win over Rupert Murdoch's minions who proclaim "Once John Wins, He'll Make a Left?" Does he stand a chance with the Conservative Political Action crowd who believe he has sacrificed conservatives’ fundamental beliefs throughout his Senate career?
Sending Lindsey Graham and Phil Gramm to plead his case with Rushbo et al is as much a waste of good will with the larger electorate as throwing red meat to a howling pack that will never accept McCain's vegetarian brand of Republican politics.
He would be well-advised to take stock in the old Arab proverb, "The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on."
White Men Can't Jump?
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are bringing to the fore the most neglected demographic in more than half a century of empowerment of minorities.
In trying to explain why the surge for Obama failed to become a tidal wave on Super Tuesday, the pundits are honing in on the behavior of the largest silent segment of society--white men.
In parsing the results, Adam Nagourney of the New York Times concludes that 2008 has "cleaved the party neatly in two: the Clinton Democrats and the Obama Democrats. Age, race and gender have become the dividing lines; nothing comes close to mattering as much.
"The Obama Democratic Party is made up of younger voters (under 44), blacks, white men (to a more limited extent) and independents...The Clinton Democratic Party is the party of women, older voters, Hispanics and also some white men."
From this point of view, of all the demographic armies marching in lockstep, only white men have failed to jump into the ranks on one side or another and stay there.
According to the Times, "Mr. Obama split the white male vote nationally with Mrs. Clinton, but there was an important geographical disparity there: White men in California voted for Mr. Obama but white men in Southern states like Alabama did not. The question is what white men in Ohio will do next month, during what is shaping up as a critical showdown for Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton."
May an aging member of this indecisive species suggest the trendiness of identity politics is going too far? If there is a split in the Democratic Party, it is more attitudinal than demographic.
Those who see the world as a set of problems to be dissected, analyzed and solved are more likely to be drawn to Mrs. Clinton. Those who believe that hearts are as important as minds in shaping the future may rally around Obama.
There is much to be said for both points of view and, if voters don't let themselves get stampeded into categories, they can make their individual decisions about what matters most to them.
After all these years of Bush mindlessness and heartlessness, they can't go too far wrong.
In trying to explain why the surge for Obama failed to become a tidal wave on Super Tuesday, the pundits are honing in on the behavior of the largest silent segment of society--white men.
In parsing the results, Adam Nagourney of the New York Times concludes that 2008 has "cleaved the party neatly in two: the Clinton Democrats and the Obama Democrats. Age, race and gender have become the dividing lines; nothing comes close to mattering as much.
"The Obama Democratic Party is made up of younger voters (under 44), blacks, white men (to a more limited extent) and independents...The Clinton Democratic Party is the party of women, older voters, Hispanics and also some white men."
From this point of view, of all the demographic armies marching in lockstep, only white men have failed to jump into the ranks on one side or another and stay there.
According to the Times, "Mr. Obama split the white male vote nationally with Mrs. Clinton, but there was an important geographical disparity there: White men in California voted for Mr. Obama but white men in Southern states like Alabama did not. The question is what white men in Ohio will do next month, during what is shaping up as a critical showdown for Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton."
May an aging member of this indecisive species suggest the trendiness of identity politics is going too far? If there is a split in the Democratic Party, it is more attitudinal than demographic.
Those who see the world as a set of problems to be dissected, analyzed and solved are more likely to be drawn to Mrs. Clinton. Those who believe that hearts are as important as minds in shaping the future may rally around Obama.
There is much to be said for both points of view and, if voters don't let themselves get stampeded into categories, they can make their individual decisions about what matters most to them.
After all these years of Bush mindlessness and heartlessness, they can't go too far wrong.
Howard Dean's Democratic Solution
The Party Chairman, the Internet candidate of 2004 who flamed out in Iowa with a primal scream, has appointed himself to mediate who the candidate will be this year if the voters can't decide between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama by the end of summer.
"I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April," Dean told an interviewer before Tuesday's results were in. "But if we don’t, then we’re going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement. Because I don’t think we can afford to have a brokered convention.”
A few weeks ago, Dean was saying about the campaigns, "The truth is, it's not that ferocious yet, and I hope it doesn't get ferocious, and I obviously have some responsibility to make sure it doesn't...I don't want it to get personal, and we have a protocol for what to do if it does."
A protocol? Is washing mouths out with soap involved?
Let's see if we have this straight: After Clinton and Obama have spent umpteen millions and a year criss-crossing the country, if the voters can't make up their minds in time for an orderly convention in late August, Uncle Howard will get them together and do what? Toss a coin?
Never mind that the original purpose of conventions was to pick a candidate not put on a TV special for the party, it takes a special kind of hubris for Dean to suggest that he will get the candidates together and "make some kind of arrangement."
At least, in the bad old days of smoke-filled rooms, it took a gaggle of party bosses to anoint the nominee. Has Dean decided to streamline the process down to just one?
"I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April," Dean told an interviewer before Tuesday's results were in. "But if we don’t, then we’re going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement. Because I don’t think we can afford to have a brokered convention.”
A few weeks ago, Dean was saying about the campaigns, "The truth is, it's not that ferocious yet, and I hope it doesn't get ferocious, and I obviously have some responsibility to make sure it doesn't...I don't want it to get personal, and we have a protocol for what to do if it does."
A protocol? Is washing mouths out with soap involved?
Let's see if we have this straight: After Clinton and Obama have spent umpteen millions and a year criss-crossing the country, if the voters can't make up their minds in time for an orderly convention in late August, Uncle Howard will get them together and do what? Toss a coin?
Never mind that the original purpose of conventions was to pick a candidate not put on a TV special for the party, it takes a special kind of hubris for Dean to suggest that he will get the candidates together and "make some kind of arrangement."
At least, in the bad old days of smoke-filled rooms, it took a gaggle of party bosses to anoint the nominee. Has Dean decided to streamline the process down to just one?
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
John McCain's Friends
The man who has more enemies in his own party than any front runner in memory keeps talking about friends.
"Tonight, my friends," John McCain said after the Super Tuesday voting, "we won a number of important victories in the closest thing we've ever had to a national primary."
In what poker players would call a "tell," McCain's use of the expression may reveal more about him than he realizes. At the 2004 Republican convention, after a tribute to FDR, who used the phrase constantly, McCain said, "My friends, we are again met on the field of political competition with our fellow countrymen...But it should remain an argument among friends who share an unshaken belief in our great cause, and in the goodness of each other."
In that speech, McCain was biting a bullet to praise George W. Bush and Dick Cheney who had smeared him so viciously four years earlier that he considered leaving the Republican Party.
"My friends" appears to be McCain's verbal shield against expressing the anger he is famous for in Senate squabbles with members of both parties. During this year's Presidential debates, before launching an attack on Mitt Romney, he would begin with a tight smile, "My friend,..."
Whoever gets the Democratic nomination to oppose McCain should keep in mind an old folk saying, "If you have him for a friend, you won't need an enemy."
"Tonight, my friends," John McCain said after the Super Tuesday voting, "we won a number of important victories in the closest thing we've ever had to a national primary."
In what poker players would call a "tell," McCain's use of the expression may reveal more about him than he realizes. At the 2004 Republican convention, after a tribute to FDR, who used the phrase constantly, McCain said, "My friends, we are again met on the field of political competition with our fellow countrymen...But it should remain an argument among friends who share an unshaken belief in our great cause, and in the goodness of each other."
In that speech, McCain was biting a bullet to praise George W. Bush and Dick Cheney who had smeared him so viciously four years earlier that he considered leaving the Republican Party.
"My friends" appears to be McCain's verbal shield against expressing the anger he is famous for in Senate squabbles with members of both parties. During this year's Presidential debates, before launching an attack on Mitt Romney, he would begin with a tight smile, "My friend,..."
Whoever gets the Democratic nomination to oppose McCain should keep in mind an old folk saying, "If you have him for a friend, you won't need an enemy."
The Messages of Super Tuesday
The results suggest that money and political muscle are not the be-all and end-all for getting to the White House.
John McCain now has a clear path to the Republican nomination, while Mike Huckabee remains to haunt his hopes for a unified Party and may very well end up as his running mate.
Barack Obama has leveled the playing field with Hillary Clinton, cutting into her lead in the delegate count to the point where the once-certain nominee is now calling for more debates to bolster her chances.
What Obama and Huckabee have in common is that a year ago they were candidates with messages who didn't have the money, the name recognition or the organization to challenge the Clintons' political juggernaut, Rudy Giuliani's 9/11 aura or Mitt Romney's wealth.
But somehow, in the face of those odds, they persuaded different segments of the electorate that they represent the best hope for change from the dismal Bush years.
Six months ago, McCain, better-known but not beloved by conservatives, had slipped off the radar in the polls. But here he is, the front runner as those with more money, celebrity and willingness to pander have gone under.
Super Tuesday doesn't justify a Pollyanna vision of Presidential politics, but it does undermine the view of cynics who claim that it's only about money and power.
John McCain now has a clear path to the Republican nomination, while Mike Huckabee remains to haunt his hopes for a unified Party and may very well end up as his running mate.
Barack Obama has leveled the playing field with Hillary Clinton, cutting into her lead in the delegate count to the point where the once-certain nominee is now calling for more debates to bolster her chances.
What Obama and Huckabee have in common is that a year ago they were candidates with messages who didn't have the money, the name recognition or the organization to challenge the Clintons' political juggernaut, Rudy Giuliani's 9/11 aura or Mitt Romney's wealth.
But somehow, in the face of those odds, they persuaded different segments of the electorate that they represent the best hope for change from the dismal Bush years.
Six months ago, McCain, better-known but not beloved by conservatives, had slipped off the radar in the polls. But here he is, the front runner as those with more money, celebrity and willingness to pander have gone under.
Super Tuesday doesn't justify a Pollyanna vision of Presidential politics, but it does undermine the view of cynics who claim that it's only about money and power.
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Tanglefoot Romney
In 1968, a Republican governor remarked, "Watching George Romney run for President is like watching a duck try to make love [PG version] to a football."
His son is keeping up the family tradition. Today, John McCain, running third in the West Virginia convention, turned supporters loose to vote for Mike Huckabee, who won the state's 18 delegates on the second ballot. Mitt Romney's campaign called foul, claiming a "backroom deal" to undercut him.
Huckabee replied that Romney "was saying yesterday, 'No whining.' So is it no whining or whining? He can't even keep a straight answer on the 'whining or no whining' question. There was no backroom deal. There wasn't even a front room deal. There was no deal."
Yesterday's Mitt misstep was dumping on Bob Dole for trying to get Rush Limbaugh to let up on John McCain. Romney rushed in to label Dole a loser in 1996 whose campaign resembled McCain's effort now. After a howl from conservatives, some of whom are supporting him, Romney had to backtrack to "make it very clear. Senator Dole is an American hero, a war hero, a fine man and a great leader for our party.”
The man can't seem to get out of his own way. If he were to get to the White House, Saturday Night Live would have to bring back Chevy Chase to do his Gerald Ford falling-all-over-himself routine.
His son is keeping up the family tradition. Today, John McCain, running third in the West Virginia convention, turned supporters loose to vote for Mike Huckabee, who won the state's 18 delegates on the second ballot. Mitt Romney's campaign called foul, claiming a "backroom deal" to undercut him.
Huckabee replied that Romney "was saying yesterday, 'No whining.' So is it no whining or whining? He can't even keep a straight answer on the 'whining or no whining' question. There was no backroom deal. There wasn't even a front room deal. There was no deal."
Yesterday's Mitt misstep was dumping on Bob Dole for trying to get Rush Limbaugh to let up on John McCain. Romney rushed in to label Dole a loser in 1996 whose campaign resembled McCain's effort now. After a howl from conservatives, some of whom are supporting him, Romney had to backtrack to "make it very clear. Senator Dole is an American hero, a war hero, a fine man and a great leader for our party.”
The man can't seem to get out of his own way. If he were to get to the White House, Saturday Night Live would have to bring back Chevy Chase to do his Gerald Ford falling-all-over-himself routine.
Easy Rider vs. Taxi Driver
Move over, Chuck Norris, the real stars are ready for their closeups.
Jack Nicholson got up early yesterday to appear on an LA morning TV show with Hillary Clinton and declare, ""Mrs. Clinton has been involved in issues, everything from health care, which we know and prison reform and helping the military, speaking for women and speaking for Americans."
Sen. Clinton was on the show with him. "I'm thrilled," she said.
On the other coast, Robert Di Niro showed up at a rally in East Rutherford, NJ to say, "I've never made a speech like this at a political event before. So what am I doing here? I'm here because finally one person has inspired me. One person has given me hope. One person has made me believe that we can make a change."
He gave Barack Obama a hug and left.
Obama was thrilled, too, "Some of you know I now have Secret Service protection," he told the crowd. "Those guys never smile; they are always cool. But I noticed when Di Niro walks in, they're all like elbowing each other, 'Hey!' They were excited. Who wouldn't be excited?"
Now we're all thrilled and excited, but who is Clint Eastwood backing?
Jack Nicholson got up early yesterday to appear on an LA morning TV show with Hillary Clinton and declare, ""Mrs. Clinton has been involved in issues, everything from health care, which we know and prison reform and helping the military, speaking for women and speaking for Americans."
Sen. Clinton was on the show with him. "I'm thrilled," she said.
On the other coast, Robert Di Niro showed up at a rally in East Rutherford, NJ to say, "I've never made a speech like this at a political event before. So what am I doing here? I'm here because finally one person has inspired me. One person has given me hope. One person has made me believe that we can make a change."
He gave Barack Obama a hug and left.
Obama was thrilled, too, "Some of you know I now have Secret Service protection," he told the crowd. "Those guys never smile; they are always cool. But I noticed when Di Niro walks in, they're all like elbowing each other, 'Hey!' They were excited. Who wouldn't be excited?"
Now we're all thrilled and excited, but who is Clint Eastwood backing?
Stupor Tuesday
If you haven't started the day with a headache, chances are you'll end with one. The mathematics of today's primaries would stupefy Einstein--super delegates, bonus delegates, caucuses, district splits, threshold percentages...
Last night Keith Olbermann and reporter David Shuster started out to explain it all and ended up in Abbott and Costello's Who's-on-First routine. Click on "Deconstructing delegates" and watch.
What ever happened to people going into a booth, pulling a lever and counting up the votes to see who wins?
Last night Keith Olbermann and reporter David Shuster started out to explain it all and ended up in Abbott and Costello's Who's-on-First routine. Click on "Deconstructing delegates" and watch.
What ever happened to people going into a booth, pulling a lever and counting up the votes to see who wins?
Monday, February 04, 2008
Iraq, Iraq, Iraq
Exit polls tomorrow night will undoubtedly show voters went into the booths worried about health care, home foreclosures, job security and other fallout from an impending recession.
Their concerns are understandable, but they may want to recall that a little over a year ago, in November 2006, their ballots gave control of Congress to Democrats with a mandate to stop the war in Iraq.
That did not happen and since then voters have been lulled by an Imperial President, using Gen. Petraeus as a human shield, into forgetting that American deaths there now total 3,945 at a cost to taxpayers exceeding $10 billion a month.
All the Republican candidates, except Ron Paul, are in favor of continuing to do that.
As for the Democrats, in 2002, I wrote to Sen. Hillary Clinton pleading with her not to give George W. the power to invade Iraq and warning that, if she did, I would never vote for her for any office. Tomorrow I will keep that promise.
Their concerns are understandable, but they may want to recall that a little over a year ago, in November 2006, their ballots gave control of Congress to Democrats with a mandate to stop the war in Iraq.
That did not happen and since then voters have been lulled by an Imperial President, using Gen. Petraeus as a human shield, into forgetting that American deaths there now total 3,945 at a cost to taxpayers exceeding $10 billion a month.
All the Republican candidates, except Ron Paul, are in favor of continuing to do that.
As for the Democrats, in 2002, I wrote to Sen. Hillary Clinton pleading with her not to give George W. the power to invade Iraq and warning that, if she did, I would never vote for her for any office. Tomorrow I will keep that promise.
John McCain, Traitor
In the eyes of its diehards, the Republican Party will go a long way tomorrow toward nominating a candidate who has betrayed its principles.
On the far right's list of infamy, McCain is reviled for damaging free speech and the First Amendment for trying to curb the power of money in elections, harming free enterprise by advocating a patient's bill of rights and the importation of lower-priced socialized medications from Canada and, worst of all, refusing to crack down on illegal immigrants who might sneak across our unfenced borders for another 9/11 attack.
The tide of bile against John McCain is so high that right-wing realists are piling last-minute sandbags on the ideological dikes to avert a GOP Katrina.
In the Boston Globe, Jeff Jacoby argues that "the immaculate conservative leader for whom so many on the right yearn to vote is a fantasy. Conservatives who say that McCain is no Ronald Reagan are right, but Mitt Romney is no Ronald Reagan either. Neither is Mike Huckabee. And neither was the real--as opposed to the mythic--Ronald Reagan.
"The conservative case against McCain is clear enough...But this year, the conservative case for McCain is vastly more compelling."
The New York Times' new sage William Kristol urges far-right colleagues to overcome their "disgruntlement and dyspepsia" and not to "treat 2008 as a throwaway election."
Fellow senators, too, are having a hard time swallowing the idea of McCain as their standard bearer, the Washington Post reports, warning that "his tirades suggest a temperament unfit for the Oval Office."
McCain's offenses against collegiality, to an outside observer, seem motivated by outrage at blatant corruption, but we may not be attuned to the nuances of legislative free enterprise.
Tomorrow will be a test for all his detractors. Will they choose a chance to win in November with the treacherous McCain or go down in honor with malleable Mitt Romney?
On the far right's list of infamy, McCain is reviled for damaging free speech and the First Amendment for trying to curb the power of money in elections, harming free enterprise by advocating a patient's bill of rights and the importation of lower-priced socialized medications from Canada and, worst of all, refusing to crack down on illegal immigrants who might sneak across our unfenced borders for another 9/11 attack.
The tide of bile against John McCain is so high that right-wing realists are piling last-minute sandbags on the ideological dikes to avert a GOP Katrina.
In the Boston Globe, Jeff Jacoby argues that "the immaculate conservative leader for whom so many on the right yearn to vote is a fantasy. Conservatives who say that McCain is no Ronald Reagan are right, but Mitt Romney is no Ronald Reagan either. Neither is Mike Huckabee. And neither was the real--as opposed to the mythic--Ronald Reagan.
"The conservative case against McCain is clear enough...But this year, the conservative case for McCain is vastly more compelling."
The New York Times' new sage William Kristol urges far-right colleagues to overcome their "disgruntlement and dyspepsia" and not to "treat 2008 as a throwaway election."
Fellow senators, too, are having a hard time swallowing the idea of McCain as their standard bearer, the Washington Post reports, warning that "his tirades suggest a temperament unfit for the Oval Office."
McCain's offenses against collegiality, to an outside observer, seem motivated by outrage at blatant corruption, but we may not be attuned to the nuances of legislative free enterprise.
Tomorrow will be a test for all his detractors. Will they choose a chance to win in November with the treacherous McCain or go down in honor with malleable Mitt Romney?
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