Forget all the rhetoric about four more years of Bush, Old Politics vs. New Politics and all that jazz. Absent any plausible reason for a late McCain surge and victory, the inescapable fact about an Obama loss would be an ugly truth to haunt American life for years to come.
Around the edges of all the opinion poll data about what will happen in just over 48 hours is an uneasiness that points to heavy turnout, early voting, the question of whether youth registration will convert into actual balloting, etc. as imponderables in this unusual election year that shows Obama outpolling McCain on almost every issue of voter trust.
But the GOP elephant in the room is race: How many "undecideds" are rummaging around the coded attacks on Barack Obama as a wealth-spreading, terrorist-friendly Muslim radical to justify their bone-deep need to vote against a black man as president?
If enough of them do, how can we explain it to ourselves--and the rest of the world?
No last-minute scare tactics about taxes or lame McCain cameos on SNL will suffice to explain away what, given all the truths of this campaign, would be a lasting American shame.
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Saturday, November 01, 2008
McCain, Obama: The Authenticity Gap
What's left of the real Barack Obama and John McCain after all this nonstop being seen and heard? If Obama wins the prize Tuesday, it may be, behind all the political jabber, a victory in the media war of attrition not to lose his authentic self.
After eight years of having a beer with a nobody-there George W. Bush, voters gave the nominations to candidates who appeared to be most themselves--Obama over the seen-as-calculating Hillary Clinton, McCain over an empty suit known as Mitt Romney.
If McCain goes down, it will be due mainly to his mystifying decision to keep being the semi-fictitious figure required to appease the Far Right in the primaries and not reverting to the straight talker who won over so many media people and independent voters in 2000.
John F. Kennedy summed up the problem in 1960 saying he sometimes felt sorry for Richard Nixon: “It must be hard getting up every morning trying to decide who you’re going to be that day.”
In these past months, there have been too many McCains, with only rare glimpses of the real one, who has fittingly enough surrounded himself with fictitious figures like Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber.
Obama's most crucial campaign decision was to try to hold on, as much as possible, to his authentic self--a problem he recognized early in the process, telling Tim Russert with a worried smile that his wife and friends thought he was still there behind all the hype and admitting on 60 Minutes that the “attempt to airbrush your life...is exhausting.”
That he has made it seem effortless is an important part of his achievement, but if wins, it won't get any easier, as foreshadowed by his irritation with photographers last evening as he took his daughter out for Halloween.
In the White House, it will be four years of trick-or-treat, to say nothing of hide-and-seek with the media trying to find the "real" Barack Obama.
After eight years of having a beer with a nobody-there George W. Bush, voters gave the nominations to candidates who appeared to be most themselves--Obama over the seen-as-calculating Hillary Clinton, McCain over an empty suit known as Mitt Romney.
If McCain goes down, it will be due mainly to his mystifying decision to keep being the semi-fictitious figure required to appease the Far Right in the primaries and not reverting to the straight talker who won over so many media people and independent voters in 2000.
John F. Kennedy summed up the problem in 1960 saying he sometimes felt sorry for Richard Nixon: “It must be hard getting up every morning trying to decide who you’re going to be that day.”
In these past months, there have been too many McCains, with only rare glimpses of the real one, who has fittingly enough surrounded himself with fictitious figures like Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber.
Obama's most crucial campaign decision was to try to hold on, as much as possible, to his authentic self--a problem he recognized early in the process, telling Tim Russert with a worried smile that his wife and friends thought he was still there behind all the hype and admitting on 60 Minutes that the “attempt to airbrush your life...is exhausting.”
That he has made it seem effortless is an important part of his achievement, but if wins, it won't get any easier, as foreshadowed by his irritation with photographers last evening as he took his daughter out for Halloween.
In the White House, it will be four years of trick-or-treat, to say nothing of hide-and-seek with the media trying to find the "real" Barack Obama.
Coffee Under the Condom Tree
Do-gooders around the world have been working overtime to prevent the spread of HIV and sexually transmitted diseases by stimulating the use of condoms in ways that pornographers might envy.
In India, to make contraceptives trendy, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is underwriting a phone ring featuring an a cappella group singing "Condom, Condom" in doo-wop style, just the thing for a dorm room on Parents Day.
Down under, public health nurses are more subtle, hanging canisters of condoms on the branches of trees, under which young Australians are likely to hang out.
Latin lovers in Argentina are being subjected to "Be Careful" ads that depict copulating skeletons and men as swine, which could backfire by making the need for the product moot, and in Ethiopia, to disguise the smell of latex, a non-profit group is dispensing dark brown condoms that reportedly taste and smell like espresso with cream and sugar while Germans are experimenting with a designer version that sprays on for a perfect fit.
Abstinence, anyone?
In India, to make contraceptives trendy, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is underwriting a phone ring featuring an a cappella group singing "Condom, Condom" in doo-wop style, just the thing for a dorm room on Parents Day.
Down under, public health nurses are more subtle, hanging canisters of condoms on the branches of trees, under which young Australians are likely to hang out.
Latin lovers in Argentina are being subjected to "Be Careful" ads that depict copulating skeletons and men as swine, which could backfire by making the need for the product moot, and in Ethiopia, to disguise the smell of latex, a non-profit group is dispensing dark brown condoms that reportedly taste and smell like espresso with cream and sugar while Germans are experimenting with a designer version that sprays on for a perfect fit.
Abstinence, anyone?
Friday, October 31, 2008
The Conservative Case for Obama
As polls show pushy Palinism hurting McCain's chances, the struggle for the Republican future is reflected by two traditional conservatives, Peggy Noonan and George Will.
In the Wall Street Journal today, Noonan, who wrote speeches for Reagan and Bush I, makes "the case for Obama" this way:
"He has within him the possibility to change the direction and tone of American foreign policy, which need changing; his rise will serve as a practical rebuke to the past five years, which need rebuking; his victory would provide a fresh start in a nation in which a fresh start would come as a national relief. He climbed steep stairs, born off the continent with no father to guide, a dreamy, abandoning mother, mixed race, no connections. He rose with guts and gifts. He is steady, calm, and, in terms of the execution of his political ascent, still the primary and almost only area in which his executive abilities can be discerned, he shows good judgment in terms of whom to hire and consult, what steps to take and moves to make. We witnessed from him this year something unique in American politics: He took down a political machine without raising his voice.
"A great moment: When the press was hitting hard on the pregnancy of Sarah Palin's 17-year-old daughter, he did not respond with a politically shrewd 'I have no comment,' or 'We shouldn't judge.' Instead he said, 'My mother had me when she was 18," which shamed the press and others into silence. He showed grace when he didn't have to."
In the Washington Post, Pultizer-Prize columnist George Will, under a heading of "Call Him John the Careless," makes the conservative case against McCain:
"From the invasion of Iraq to the selection of Sarah Palin, carelessness has characterized recent episodes of faux conservatism. Tuesday's probable repudiation of the Republican Party will punish characteristics displayed in the campaign's closing days...
"Palin may be an inveterate simplifier; McCain has a history of reducing controversies to cartoons. A Republican financial expert recalls attending a dinner with McCain for the purpose of discussing with him domestic and international financial complexities that clearly did not fascinate the senator. As the dinner ended, McCain's question for his briefer was: 'So, who is the villain?'"
No liberal could make the case for Obama and against McCain any better than that.
In the Wall Street Journal today, Noonan, who wrote speeches for Reagan and Bush I, makes "the case for Obama" this way:
"He has within him the possibility to change the direction and tone of American foreign policy, which need changing; his rise will serve as a practical rebuke to the past five years, which need rebuking; his victory would provide a fresh start in a nation in which a fresh start would come as a national relief. He climbed steep stairs, born off the continent with no father to guide, a dreamy, abandoning mother, mixed race, no connections. He rose with guts and gifts. He is steady, calm, and, in terms of the execution of his political ascent, still the primary and almost only area in which his executive abilities can be discerned, he shows good judgment in terms of whom to hire and consult, what steps to take and moves to make. We witnessed from him this year something unique in American politics: He took down a political machine without raising his voice.
"A great moment: When the press was hitting hard on the pregnancy of Sarah Palin's 17-year-old daughter, he did not respond with a politically shrewd 'I have no comment,' or 'We shouldn't judge.' Instead he said, 'My mother had me when she was 18," which shamed the press and others into silence. He showed grace when he didn't have to."
In the Washington Post, Pultizer-Prize columnist George Will, under a heading of "Call Him John the Careless," makes the conservative case against McCain:
"From the invasion of Iraq to the selection of Sarah Palin, carelessness has characterized recent episodes of faux conservatism. Tuesday's probable repudiation of the Republican Party will punish characteristics displayed in the campaign's closing days...
"Palin may be an inveterate simplifier; McCain has a history of reducing controversies to cartoons. A Republican financial expert recalls attending a dinner with McCain for the purpose of discussing with him domestic and international financial complexities that clearly did not fascinate the senator. As the dinner ended, McCain's question for his briefer was: 'So, who is the villain?'"
No liberal could make the case for Obama and against McCain any better than that.
The Thrift Trap
Today's economics lecture from Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman is deeply disquieting. The bad news, in a nutshell, is that American consumers are tightening their belts at the worst possible time.
"(I)f consumers cut their spending," he writes, "and nothing else takes the place of that spending, the economy will slide into a recession, reducing everyone’s income.
"In fact, consumers’ income may actually fall more than their spending, so that their attempt to save more backfires--a possibility known as the paradox of thrift."
The normal remedies, such as cutting interest rates, have been used up, Krugman argues, leaving only government spending (pace John McCain) "to take the place of retrenching consumers...a major fiscal stimulus. And this time the stimulus should take the form of actual government spending rather than rebate checks that consumers probably wouldn’t spend."
If Krugman is right, the usual arguments about tax-and-spend liberals will have to be put on hold, as a bipartisan post-Bush government considers putting massive amounts of money into crumbling roads, tunnels and bridges--to say nothing of education and health care--not only to restore the infrastructure but the economy as well.
For a start, some of it could come from reducing the $10 billion a month that is still being poured down the drain in Iraq.
Government spending, not always wisely, helped put the country back on track in the 1930s. Obama is going to need an even better Brain Trust than FDR put together.
"(I)f consumers cut their spending," he writes, "and nothing else takes the place of that spending, the economy will slide into a recession, reducing everyone’s income.
"In fact, consumers’ income may actually fall more than their spending, so that their attempt to save more backfires--a possibility known as the paradox of thrift."
The normal remedies, such as cutting interest rates, have been used up, Krugman argues, leaving only government spending (pace John McCain) "to take the place of retrenching consumers...a major fiscal stimulus. And this time the stimulus should take the form of actual government spending rather than rebate checks that consumers probably wouldn’t spend."
If Krugman is right, the usual arguments about tax-and-spend liberals will have to be put on hold, as a bipartisan post-Bush government considers putting massive amounts of money into crumbling roads, tunnels and bridges--to say nothing of education and health care--not only to restore the infrastructure but the economy as well.
For a start, some of it could come from reducing the $10 billion a month that is still being poured down the drain in Iraq.
Government spending, not always wisely, helped put the country back on track in the 1930s. Obama is going to need an even better Brain Trust than FDR put together.
The Case Against One-Day Voting
With an estimated one out of three Americans casting ballots before Election Day this year, it may be time to rethink the tradition of having millions of voters swamp polling places on a Tuesday in November. Why just one day? Why not two, three or even a week?
The advantages of converting to an Election Week are many and obvious:
*With the uncertainties of electronic gadgetry, a longer period would reduce not only endless lines and voter frustration but allow more time to resolve registration challenges and to count and, if necessary, recount ballots;
*Races would not be decided by bad weather conditions that sometimes make it difficult for the aged and the infirm to get to polls;
*The self-employed and others who find it hard to take working time off would have the choice of voting on a Saturday;
*The process would not be so dependent on aggressive get-out-the-vote tactics by political parties.
When a Tuesday was chosen in 1845, people traveled by horse and buggy, and farmers often needed a day to get to the county seat and a day to get back, without interfering with the Sabbath. Now, in Nevada, we have voting machines in shopping malls.
This year, with record numbers of early votes and absentee ballots, there is a de facto move to a longer voting period. Even so, the new Congress may want to look back at next Tuesday's problems in what promises to be a record turnout and rethink the wisdom of squeezing the decision about our national future into a single day.
Some might insist that inconvenience should be a part of civic duty to weed out the unmotivated and uniformed. But that would be, to borrow a word from this year's campaign, an "elitist" argument.
The advantages of converting to an Election Week are many and obvious:
*With the uncertainties of electronic gadgetry, a longer period would reduce not only endless lines and voter frustration but allow more time to resolve registration challenges and to count and, if necessary, recount ballots;
*Races would not be decided by bad weather conditions that sometimes make it difficult for the aged and the infirm to get to polls;
*The self-employed and others who find it hard to take working time off would have the choice of voting on a Saturday;
*The process would not be so dependent on aggressive get-out-the-vote tactics by political parties.
When a Tuesday was chosen in 1845, people traveled by horse and buggy, and farmers often needed a day to get to the county seat and a day to get back, without interfering with the Sabbath. Now, in Nevada, we have voting machines in shopping malls.
This year, with record numbers of early votes and absentee ballots, there is a de facto move to a longer voting period. Even so, the new Congress may want to look back at next Tuesday's problems in what promises to be a record turnout and rethink the wisdom of squeezing the decision about our national future into a single day.
Some might insist that inconvenience should be a part of civic duty to weed out the unmotivated and uniformed. But that would be, to borrow a word from this year's campaign, an "elitist" argument.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Wisdom of the Aged
Andrew Sullivan cites her for commentary "that knocks your socks off," but with the restraint more seemly for age, I just tip my hat to 82-year-old Helen Philpot of Texas and her college friend, Margaret Schmechtman of Maine, who have started an octogenarian blog that really rocks.
Ms. Philpot does not mince words:
"I am surprised that some of you are up in arms about my calling Sarah Palin a bitch, or John McCain an ass or even George Bush a jackass...Some of you are actually praying for me...
"Well this old broad is hurt...I am so sorry if I have offended any of you...
"New rules:
"I will stop calling George Bush a jackass when he stops calling me a terrorist: Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.
"I will stop calling John McCain an ass when he stops calling Barack Obama a socialist at every dog and pony show on the Straight Talk Express tour.
"I will stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch when she stops calling Obama a terrorist sympathizer. And I will stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch when she stops calling the parts of the country where I don’t live more Pro-American than the part of the country where I do live. And I will definitely stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch when she stops acting like a bitch.
"I’m old enough to remember the Republican party of Barry Goldwater--when the party stood for fiscal responsibility, small government and personal freedoms. I remember when I could talk with friends about politics and just agree to disagree. And then religious nut cases decided that if you didn’t agree with them you were immoral. So they went and elected George Bush President so he could take the Republican Party from being a party full of respectable people to a party filled with asses, jackasses and yes--bitches like Sarah Palin."
Ms. Philpot has a good memory and a salty tongue that makes some of her contemporaries (like me) sound timid and lame.
Ms. Philpot does not mince words:
"I am surprised that some of you are up in arms about my calling Sarah Palin a bitch, or John McCain an ass or even George Bush a jackass...Some of you are actually praying for me...
"Well this old broad is hurt...I am so sorry if I have offended any of you...
"New rules:
"I will stop calling George Bush a jackass when he stops calling me a terrorist: Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.
"I will stop calling John McCain an ass when he stops calling Barack Obama a socialist at every dog and pony show on the Straight Talk Express tour.
"I will stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch when she stops calling Obama a terrorist sympathizer. And I will stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch when she stops calling the parts of the country where I don’t live more Pro-American than the part of the country where I do live. And I will definitely stop calling Sarah Palin a bitch when she stops acting like a bitch.
"I’m old enough to remember the Republican party of Barry Goldwater--when the party stood for fiscal responsibility, small government and personal freedoms. I remember when I could talk with friends about politics and just agree to disagree. And then religious nut cases decided that if you didn’t agree with them you were immoral. So they went and elected George Bush President so he could take the Republican Party from being a party full of respectable people to a party filled with asses, jackasses and yes--bitches like Sarah Palin."
Ms. Philpot has a good memory and a salty tongue that makes some of her contemporaries (like me) sound timid and lame.
Obama and Bill Clinton Share a Laugh
There was a moment last night when Barack Obama was saying the McCain campaign was calling him a Socialist because he had once shared a peanut butter sandwich with a classmate and Bill Clinton laughed--not that slit-eyed, calculated political chuckle but a genuine guffaw of recognition from someone who had suffered the smear treatment and survived.
When the former President was being hounded by Newt Gingrich and his merry midgets, it was no laughing matter, and there is still reason to believe that Clinton failed to take out Osama bin Laden when he could have back then because it would have been seen as a "Wag the Dog" diversion from his impeachment.
But more than a decade later, the politics of personal destruction has worn thin, and what was tragic back then can be seen as comedy now in the tired attacks that McCain-Palin are mouthing about terrorists, wealth-spreaders and the like.
In his campaign, Barack Obama may not exactly be standing on Bill Clinton's shoulders, as he graciously suggested last night (“In case all of you forgot, this is what it’s like to have such a great president”), but in the finesse with which he is swatting away Rovian accusations in these final days, the candidate of tomorrow is definitely profiting from the bitter experience of yesterday's target.
It was nice to see them sharing a laugh about it last night.
When the former President was being hounded by Newt Gingrich and his merry midgets, it was no laughing matter, and there is still reason to believe that Clinton failed to take out Osama bin Laden when he could have back then because it would have been seen as a "Wag the Dog" diversion from his impeachment.
But more than a decade later, the politics of personal destruction has worn thin, and what was tragic back then can be seen as comedy now in the tired attacks that McCain-Palin are mouthing about terrorists, wealth-spreaders and the like.
In his campaign, Barack Obama may not exactly be standing on Bill Clinton's shoulders, as he graciously suggested last night (“In case all of you forgot, this is what it’s like to have such a great president”), but in the finesse with which he is swatting away Rovian accusations in these final days, the candidate of tomorrow is definitely profiting from the bitter experience of yesterday's target.
It was nice to see them sharing a laugh about it last night.
Wednesday Night Live
The presidential campaign peaked on prime-time TV with Barack Obama's 30-minute, $5 million valentine to the American middle class, followed by John McCain on Larry King, free of charge, expressing pride and confidence in Sarah Palin, while admitting their maverickosity leads to an occasional difference of opinion.
Later, Obama upstaged himself on the Daily Show by simultaneously appearing live in Florida to embrace and be embraced by Bill Clinton. In contrast, George W. Bush seemed to be in a presidential protection program as far as McCain was concerned.
A visitor from another planet could easily tell who is ahead by Obama's concentration on hopes for the future, while McCain and Palin continued to belabor fears about their opponent's past, adding a Palestinian professor to their pantheon of scary passing acquaintances.
The political pundits have now been reduced to debating the reliability of public opinion polls to produce suspense in a race that seems to be headed in one direction even as a deciding World Series game ended competition in the other national pastime.
Later, Obama upstaged himself on the Daily Show by simultaneously appearing live in Florida to embrace and be embraced by Bill Clinton. In contrast, George W. Bush seemed to be in a presidential protection program as far as McCain was concerned.
A visitor from another planet could easily tell who is ahead by Obama's concentration on hopes for the future, while McCain and Palin continued to belabor fears about their opponent's past, adding a Palestinian professor to their pantheon of scary passing acquaintances.
The political pundits have now been reduced to debating the reliability of public opinion polls to produce suspense in a race that seems to be headed in one direction even as a deciding World Series game ended competition in the other national pastime.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
The Weirdness of Waiting
For Americans, after almost two years of electioneering, the prospect of going cold turkey in less than a week is producing symptoms of anxiety on all sides. The campaigns, of course, are doing what they have to do--Obama people warning about overconfidence and McCain strategists sweating for a scrappy finish a la Harry Truman in 1948.
In between, pollsters and pundits, in a panic to fill the time with perceived wisdom, are sprinting in all directions--the race is tightening (Gallup) as races always do with "buyer's remorse" setting in, an Obama landslide is coming (Pew Research Center), but we either don't really know what his presidency would be like (Washington Post) or we know only too well and should head for the bunkers (Wall Street Journal).
Tonight is the night of TV with Obama's half-hour wall-to-wall infomercial, which may either be a triumph of taking advantage of his fund-raising prowess or a reminder of his broken promise to limit himself to public financing (Campbell Brown on CNN).
By the time we see him on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, we should be in desperate need of a laugh or a five-day nap until next Tuesday.
In between, pollsters and pundits, in a panic to fill the time with perceived wisdom, are sprinting in all directions--the race is tightening (Gallup) as races always do with "buyer's remorse" setting in, an Obama landslide is coming (Pew Research Center), but we either don't really know what his presidency would be like (Washington Post) or we know only too well and should head for the bunkers (Wall Street Journal).
Tonight is the night of TV with Obama's half-hour wall-to-wall infomercial, which may either be a triumph of taking advantage of his fund-raising prowess or a reminder of his broken promise to limit himself to public financing (Campbell Brown on CNN).
By the time we see him on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, we should be in desperate need of a laugh or a five-day nap until next Tuesday.
Wrong-Way McCain
In this final week, the former Navy flier is piloting his campaign with the navigational skills of Douglas "Wrong Way" Corrigan, who took off for California 70 years ago and ended up in Ireland and as part of American folklore.
John McCain, whose destination is the support of independent voters, keeps flying in the face of all experience that shows they are averse to negative campaigning by escalating his attacks on Barack Obama as a Socialist, "wealth spreader" and, catchiest of all, "redistributionist."
As he has throughout the year, McCain seems almost obsessively focused on the Rightmost Republican base, voters who certainly don't need persuading to reject Obama, by picking Sarah Palin as a running mate rather than a centrist and by giving campaign crowds red meat rather than acting presidential and concentrating on issues.
With Palin as his co-pilot and Joe the Plumber navigating, McCain seems destined to end this flight in electoral oblivion.
John McCain, whose destination is the support of independent voters, keeps flying in the face of all experience that shows they are averse to negative campaigning by escalating his attacks on Barack Obama as a Socialist, "wealth spreader" and, catchiest of all, "redistributionist."
As he has throughout the year, McCain seems almost obsessively focused on the Rightmost Republican base, voters who certainly don't need persuading to reject Obama, by picking Sarah Palin as a running mate rather than a centrist and by giving campaign crowds red meat rather than acting presidential and concentrating on issues.
With Palin as his co-pilot and Joe the Plumber navigating, McCain seems destined to end this flight in electoral oblivion.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Best Journalism Movie Ever
TCM is showing Billy Wilder's "Ace in the Hole" tonight, my favorite among all journalism movies over "The Front Page," "Deadline USA," "All the President's Men," "The Paper," "Broadcast News" and "Absence of Malice," all fine films about fallible human beings reporting the news.
In an era when journalists are routinely reviled by political ideologists, it's easy to forget that, from A. J. Liebling on, they have always been their own severest critics in a calling that usually attracts young people interested in doing good in the world beyond doing well for themselves.
In 1951, I had just started working on newspapers and magazines when "Ace in the Hole" hit me hard with Kirk Douglas' portrayal of a down-and-almost-out reporter who sees a man trapped in a mine as his ticket back to the big time and ends up killing him by exploiting and stretching out his rescue.
Journalists as seducers and betrayers of their sources is a theme that runs through modern culture, from Janet Malcolm's "The Journalist and the Murderer" through the recent movies about Truman Capote and the making of "In Cold Blood."
When it appeared in the what-me-worry postwar era, "Ace in the Hole" was a commercial failure and, when released for TV, was given the more palatable title of "The Big Carnival." But it was and is a mordant reminder that there can be people in life-and-death situations behind the collection of words and images we call news.
In an era when journalists are routinely reviled by political ideologists, it's easy to forget that, from A. J. Liebling on, they have always been their own severest critics in a calling that usually attracts young people interested in doing good in the world beyond doing well for themselves.
In 1951, I had just started working on newspapers and magazines when "Ace in the Hole" hit me hard with Kirk Douglas' portrayal of a down-and-almost-out reporter who sees a man trapped in a mine as his ticket back to the big time and ends up killing him by exploiting and stretching out his rescue.
Journalists as seducers and betrayers of their sources is a theme that runs through modern culture, from Janet Malcolm's "The Journalist and the Murderer" through the recent movies about Truman Capote and the making of "In Cold Blood."
When it appeared in the what-me-worry postwar era, "Ace in the Hole" was a commercial failure and, when released for TV, was given the more palatable title of "The Big Carnival." But it was and is a mordant reminder that there can be people in life-and-death situations behind the collection of words and images we call news.
Fall of the Know-It-Alls
The humiliation of Alan Greenspan last week in publicly admitting his fallible perception of the housing bubble prompts David Brooks to see a larger meaning:
"This meltdown is not just a financial event, but also a cultural one. It’s a big, whopping reminder that the human mind is continually trying to perceive things that aren’t true, and not perceiving them takes enormous effort."
It's also a reminder of what has always been the motivation, aside from greed, of not only the so-called experts but the run-of-the-mill stock market investor--the psychic need to be "in the know," to be able to see more than anyone else and profit from it.
In the era of 24/7 cable financial news, it's not just the talking heads but the watchers who are constantly trying to confirm their superior perception--a modern version of the traditional gambler's search for grace in the roll of the dice or turn of the cards--the need to feel superior to the rest of humanity.
"My sense," Brooks writes, "is that this financial crisis is going to amount to a coming-out party for behavioral economists and others who are bringing sophisticated psychology to the realm of public policy. At least these folks have plausible explanations for why so many people could have been so gigantically wrong about the risks they were taking."
Maybe so, but all that social science may end up just staring at that primal urge that drives human beings to prove themselves special by being "in the know."
"This meltdown is not just a financial event, but also a cultural one. It’s a big, whopping reminder that the human mind is continually trying to perceive things that aren’t true, and not perceiving them takes enormous effort."
It's also a reminder of what has always been the motivation, aside from greed, of not only the so-called experts but the run-of-the-mill stock market investor--the psychic need to be "in the know," to be able to see more than anyone else and profit from it.
In the era of 24/7 cable financial news, it's not just the talking heads but the watchers who are constantly trying to confirm their superior perception--a modern version of the traditional gambler's search for grace in the roll of the dice or turn of the cards--the need to feel superior to the rest of humanity.
"My sense," Brooks writes, "is that this financial crisis is going to amount to a coming-out party for behavioral economists and others who are bringing sophisticated psychology to the realm of public policy. At least these folks have plausible explanations for why so many people could have been so gigantically wrong about the risks they were taking."
Maybe so, but all that social science may end up just staring at that primal urge that drives human beings to prove themselves special by being "in the know."
Obama's Southern Surge
With a week to go, more than a million ballots have been cast in each of three swing states--Georgia, North Carolina and Florida--foreshadowing a record early turnout across the country.
The Solid South, which, in pre-civil rights days was a segregationist stronghold for Democrats, is showing signs of breaking out of the Republican redoubt it has been ever since.
Polls are showing Obama's lead in Virginia widening, and the Institute for Southern Studies reports that in North Carolina "a perfect storm of factors have come together for Democrats in 2008, including: a widespread sentiment for change, frustration over the tough hit on NC's economy, Obama's ability to mobilize a sizable number of core voters in NC, lack of excitement among religious conservatives for McCain--even same-day voter registration, which tends to boost youth and African-American turnout."
With all this going on below the Mason-Dixon line, next week's voting promises to shake up the electoral map in a way that goes beyond the obvious contest between new voters and old biases.
The Solid South, which, in pre-civil rights days was a segregationist stronghold for Democrats, is showing signs of breaking out of the Republican redoubt it has been ever since.
Polls are showing Obama's lead in Virginia widening, and the Institute for Southern Studies reports that in North Carolina "a perfect storm of factors have come together for Democrats in 2008, including: a widespread sentiment for change, frustration over the tough hit on NC's economy, Obama's ability to mobilize a sizable number of core voters in NC, lack of excitement among religious conservatives for McCain--even same-day voter registration, which tends to boost youth and African-American turnout."
With all this going on below the Mason-Dixon line, next week's voting promises to shake up the electoral map in a way that goes beyond the obvious contest between new voters and old biases.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Sarah Palin's Sentimental Side
After Election Day, Alaska may have the Vice President-Elect (or not) and a convicted felon who has just won another term in the Senate (or not), but in any case, they are not likely to be exchanging Christmas cards.
After Ted Stevens was found guilty today, Sarah Palin said it was a sad day for Alaska and promptly threw her former mentor under the bus:
"The verdict shines a light on the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state. And that control was part of the culture of corruption that I was elected to fight, and that fight must always move forward regardless of party affiliation or seniority or even past service."
In stepping over Stevens' still warm body, Palin is overlooking their personal history: that, during her 2006 race for governor, Palin, while calling on Stevens to come clean about his alleged wrongdoing, held a joint news conference with him, before he was indicted, to have it both ways. Stevens reciprocated with a last-minute endorsement and filmed a campaign commercial for her.
Their connection began in 2003 with Palin serving as a director of the ethically iffy "Ted Stevens Excellence in Public Service, Inc.," a 527 group to raise unlimited funds from corporate donors to help Republican women running for office in Alaska.
If the Republicans fail to take the White House next week, this could be a preview of the gratitude and loyalty John McCain can expect from his running mate in the future.
After Ted Stevens was found guilty today, Sarah Palin said it was a sad day for Alaska and promptly threw her former mentor under the bus:
"The verdict shines a light on the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state. And that control was part of the culture of corruption that I was elected to fight, and that fight must always move forward regardless of party affiliation or seniority or even past service."
In stepping over Stevens' still warm body, Palin is overlooking their personal history: that, during her 2006 race for governor, Palin, while calling on Stevens to come clean about his alleged wrongdoing, held a joint news conference with him, before he was indicted, to have it both ways. Stevens reciprocated with a last-minute endorsement and filmed a campaign commercial for her.
Their connection began in 2003 with Palin serving as a director of the ethically iffy "Ted Stevens Excellence in Public Service, Inc.," a 527 group to raise unlimited funds from corporate donors to help Republican women running for office in Alaska.
If the Republicans fail to take the White House next week, this could be a preview of the gratitude and loyalty John McCain can expect from his running mate in the future.
Kafka at the Polls
With only a week to go, Republicans have been busy trying to use computer errors to make voters disappear in swing states such as Georgia, Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin.
"What most people don't know is that every year, elections officials strike millions of names from the voter rolls using processes that are secret, prone to error and vulnerable to manipulation," says Wendy Weiser, an elections expert with New York University's Brennan Center for Justice.
In Georgia, the regional counsel for the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, is a plaintiff in a lawsuit claiming, "people are being told they are non-citizens, including both naturalized citizens and U.S-born citizens. They're being told they're not eligible to vote, based on information in a database that hasn't been checked and approved by the Department of Justice, and that we know has flaws in it."
In Ohio, the state Republican Party sued to make the Democratic secretary of state generate a list of people who had mismatched information, but Jennifer Brunner refused on the grounds that it might disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of voters. The Supreme Court last week ruled in her favor.
While criticizing ACORN for inaccuracies in registering new voters, Republican elves have been very busy trying to block the existing who might vote the wrong way.
"What most people don't know is that every year, elections officials strike millions of names from the voter rolls using processes that are secret, prone to error and vulnerable to manipulation," says Wendy Weiser, an elections expert with New York University's Brennan Center for Justice.
In Georgia, the regional counsel for the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, is a plaintiff in a lawsuit claiming, "people are being told they are non-citizens, including both naturalized citizens and U.S-born citizens. They're being told they're not eligible to vote, based on information in a database that hasn't been checked and approved by the Department of Justice, and that we know has flaws in it."
In Ohio, the state Republican Party sued to make the Democratic secretary of state generate a list of people who had mismatched information, but Jennifer Brunner refused on the grounds that it might disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of voters. The Supreme Court last week ruled in her favor.
While criticizing ACORN for inaccuracies in registering new voters, Republican elves have been very busy trying to block the existing who might vote the wrong way.
New England's Token Republican
The 4th District of Connecticut, where I live, is represented in the House by the region's only surviving Republican of the Bush years, Chris Shays, and once again the New York Times is endorsing him, noting that his opponent Jim Himes "is an attractive candidate, and we have not always agreed with Mr. Shays on the Iraq war and other issues."
In both 2004 and 2006, the Times endorsed Shays over Diane Farrell, another "attractive candidate," in practically the same words.
As a voter who has conscientiously compared the records and positions of all concerned, I am once again frustrated by the logic of preferring a politician who started out with Newt Gingrich as "my hero," followed Tom DeLay loyally and, against the clear desires of his constituents, supported the war in Iraq consistently over a highly qualified replacement.
If the Times Editorial Board needs another token Republican this year, some other district should take its turn. This time, NIMBY.
In both 2004 and 2006, the Times endorsed Shays over Diane Farrell, another "attractive candidate," in practically the same words.
As a voter who has conscientiously compared the records and positions of all concerned, I am once again frustrated by the logic of preferring a politician who started out with Newt Gingrich as "my hero," followed Tom DeLay loyally and, against the clear desires of his constituents, supported the war in Iraq consistently over a highly qualified replacement.
If the Times Editorial Board needs another token Republican this year, some other district should take its turn. This time, NIMBY.
The One-Party Rule Scare
In this desperate week of fighting to hold onto Washington power, the GOP will play its last card--to arouse voter fear of what one-party rule would do to the country, of what the "Socialism" of Barack Obama would mean if supported by filibuster-proof majorities that would give Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid a free hand.
By implicitly acknowledging the defeat of their White House ticket, Republicans could make the argument in an attempt to save such endangered Senate seats as those of Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, Saxby Chambliss in Georgia and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.
Since Americans have an innate mistrust of concentrated power, the notion could gain traction for voters with short memories. They would have to forget the past two years of "checks and balances" that prevented extending health care to impoverished children and setting reasonable timetables for withdrawal from Iraq, among other majority desires.
Some might look at the first six years of the Bush Administration with a compliant Congress that produced a disastrous war, a ruined economy and an assault on the Constitution. That was one-party rule with a vengeance, but does that make the case for an impotent divided Washington or for putting the future in the hands of a party that won't abuse its power?
No reasonable person would be willing to trust an Obama Administration and Democratic Congress with unlimited power but, in cleaning up eight years of Bush wreckage, it makes sense to let them start doing the job without their hands tied.
By implicitly acknowledging the defeat of their White House ticket, Republicans could make the argument in an attempt to save such endangered Senate seats as those of Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, Saxby Chambliss in Georgia and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.
Since Americans have an innate mistrust of concentrated power, the notion could gain traction for voters with short memories. They would have to forget the past two years of "checks and balances" that prevented extending health care to impoverished children and setting reasonable timetables for withdrawal from Iraq, among other majority desires.
Some might look at the first six years of the Bush Administration with a compliant Congress that produced a disastrous war, a ruined economy and an assault on the Constitution. That was one-party rule with a vengeance, but does that make the case for an impotent divided Washington or for putting the future in the hands of a party that won't abuse its power?
No reasonable person would be willing to trust an Obama Administration and Democratic Congress with unlimited power but, in cleaning up eight years of Bush wreckage, it makes sense to let them start doing the job without their hands tied.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
McCain's Last Stand
As Barack Obama was promising voters "We're not going to let George Bush pass the torch to John McCain," the GOP candidate himself was in, of all places, Waterloo (Iowa), trying to persuade Tom Brokaw and himself that, on the 41st anniversary of being shot down in Vietnam, his campaign for president was not going down in flames now.
As Brokaw fired off poll numbers, quotes about Sarah Palin's shortcomings and McCain's own words about Bush that evoked the answer, "So do we share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course," the old warrior resolutely insisted on his own version of reality, often using air quotes to denote sarcasm about those who say otherwise and consider Obama preferable.
In this hermetically sealed world, the polls are all wrong except for Zogby (which insists on using a model that forces equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats into an outdated mold) and voters will wake up on November 4th and elect the maverick McCain of 2000.
In this Rip Van Winkle universe, McCain on the economy is FDR in the Great Depression and Harry Truman upsetting Tom Dewey in 1948.
Listening to all this must have been an out-of-body experience for Brokaw, who ended the ordeal with valedictory-like "hope this has been a better Sunday than it was 41 years ago," to which McCain responded, "I appreciate your many years of informing the American people. You've come a long way from South Dakota, but you never forgot where you came from."
So today's Meet the Press ended with an exchange of good wishes by two elderly gentlemen, one of whom will ease back into retirement from TV next year and the other into being the titular head of a minority opposition party from his seat in the US Senate.
As Brokaw fired off poll numbers, quotes about Sarah Palin's shortcomings and McCain's own words about Bush that evoked the answer, "So do we share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course," the old warrior resolutely insisted on his own version of reality, often using air quotes to denote sarcasm about those who say otherwise and consider Obama preferable.
In this hermetically sealed world, the polls are all wrong except for Zogby (which insists on using a model that forces equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats into an outdated mold) and voters will wake up on November 4th and elect the maverick McCain of 2000.
In this Rip Van Winkle universe, McCain on the economy is FDR in the Great Depression and Harry Truman upsetting Tom Dewey in 1948.
Listening to all this must have been an out-of-body experience for Brokaw, who ended the ordeal with valedictory-like "hope this has been a better Sunday than it was 41 years ago," to which McCain responded, "I appreciate your many years of informing the American people. You've come a long way from South Dakota, but you never forgot where you came from."
So today's Meet the Press ended with an exchange of good wishes by two elderly gentlemen, one of whom will ease back into retirement from TV next year and the other into being the titular head of a minority opposition party from his seat in the US Senate.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Generation Gap in the McCain-Palin Split
Attack dogs can get carried away and turn on their handlers, the Republican campaign now seems to be learning, as open warfare breaks out in anonymous diatribes.
McCain advisers, CNN reports, are becoming "increasingly frustrated with what one aide described as Palin 'going rogue'" while her people are complaining about what they feel was "a damaging and mismanaged roll-out."
According to McCain sources, "Palin has gone off-message several times, and they privately wonder whether the incidents were deliberate. They cited an instance in which she labeled robocalls--recorded messages often used to attack a candidate's opponent--'irritating' even as the campaign defended their use. Also, they pointed to her telling reporters she disagreed with the campaign's decision to pull out of Michigan."
McCain aides tell Politico Palin was "simply unready--'green,' sloppy and incomprehensibly willing to criticize McCain for, for instance, not attacking Sen. Barack Obama for his relationship with his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright."
The rift seems to go beyond the usual friction in a losing campaign. "She is a diva," a McCain adviser complains. "She takes no advice from anyone. She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else."
The generation gap in the ticket is fast becoming a chasm, as the McCain people see his last chance fading fast and the Palin supporters start looking for excuses and positioning their candidate for the future. If the ugliness grows, they may all lose their credibility.
McCain advisers, CNN reports, are becoming "increasingly frustrated with what one aide described as Palin 'going rogue'" while her people are complaining about what they feel was "a damaging and mismanaged roll-out."
According to McCain sources, "Palin has gone off-message several times, and they privately wonder whether the incidents were deliberate. They cited an instance in which she labeled robocalls--recorded messages often used to attack a candidate's opponent--'irritating' even as the campaign defended their use. Also, they pointed to her telling reporters she disagreed with the campaign's decision to pull out of Michigan."
McCain aides tell Politico Palin was "simply unready--'green,' sloppy and incomprehensibly willing to criticize McCain for, for instance, not attacking Sen. Barack Obama for his relationship with his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright."
The rift seems to go beyond the usual friction in a losing campaign. "She is a diva," a McCain adviser complains. "She takes no advice from anyone. She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else."
The generation gap in the ticket is fast becoming a chasm, as the McCain people see his last chance fading fast and the Palin supporters start looking for excuses and positioning their candidate for the future. If the ugliness grows, they may all lose their credibility.
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