New Year's Palin Hangover

The party's over, and all those sober gurus are picking on my date. Conservative Charles Krauthammer says she's a half-term governor who "has no chance of winning a general election" next year. Next year?

At the New York Times, statistical wonk Nate Silver revisits his "10 Reasons That Sarah Palin Could Win the Republican Nomination" and concludes with a wordy "maybe not."

"Ms. Palin’s numbers," Silver grouches, "are problematic in some polls--like in a recent CNN survey in which about half of Republicans say they’re unlikely to vote for her," adding that "her support tends to be concentrated among Republicans with lower incomes and lower educational attainment--and these types of people are traditionally less likely to turn out in primaries."

Picky, picky, picky. A Washington Post blog chimes in to add that Palin is "giving every indication that if she formally enters the race, she intends to run as a factional candidate by mobilizing her personal loyalists...but it's highly unlikely that a factional candidate can win now in a coalition-style nominating process.

"It's not too late for her, but it's getting closer..."

This political obituary is headlined "Is Sarah Palin Toast?"--a reversal of meaning about the figure who has been the toast of the media for two years.

New Year's Day always brings hangovers, but a breakfast metaphor this early is as hard to take as the realization that the Presidential election is next year. Next year.

Pass the aspirin.