An Inconvenient Death

The President’s speech writer had to make a last-minute addition to his TV talk tonight about “the way forward” in Iraq.

Right after “The changes in Anbar show all Iraqis what becomes possible when extremists are driven out,” he had to add “Earlier today, one of the brave tribal sheiks who helped lead the revolt against al-Qaeda was murdered.” Abu Risha was the head of the Anbar Awakening Council with whom the President had posed for a smiling picture just 10 days ago.

“This is a tragic loss," Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, said of the Sunni sheik's death. "It shows how significant his importance was and it shows al-Qaeda in Iraq remains a very dangerous and barbaric enemy."

By the inverted logic that is by now so familiar, the assassination of the key man in our Anbar “victory” proves how desperate the defeated enemy has become.

As a reminder that we are fighting on at least two fronts, another U.S. general said today that an attack on our headquarters garrison this week was carried out with the kind of 240 mm rocket that Iran provides to Shiite extremists.

One person was killed and 11 wounded in the attack Tuesday at Camp Victory, the headquarters of Multinational Forces-Iraq, by a rocket from a Baghdad district infiltrated by breakaway factions of the Mahdi Army militia of Muqtada al-Sadr.

For anyone keeping score, that keeps the Sunni and Shiite murderers tied in what the President tonight termed “the gains we are making” in Iraq. But as he reassured us, it’s going to be a long contest, even if it has to go into overtime.

A Bipartisan Push for Peace in Iraq

In a moment out of distant American history when politics was supposed to stop at the water’s edge, the Bush Administration’s Ambassador to Iraq and a Democratic candidate for President in ’08 joined this week in prodding Shiites and Sunnis to stop squabbling and make peace.

Ryan Crocker and Sen. Joe Biden accompanied top deputies of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on a trip to the Sunni bastion of Anbar Province to pledge more than $120 million in reconstruction money as a step toward political reconciliation.

Crocker pointed out that “Anbaris, the Iraqis, and the coalition have [pushed] Al Qaeda out to the extent that a conference [can be] held that doesn't even talk about security...That's really significant."

Biden was less enthusiastic but encouraged reconciliation. "If you continue,” he said, “we will continue to send you our sons and our daughters to shed their blood with you and for you...If you decide you cannot live together, let us know.... we can say goodbye now."

Perhaps as significant as the meeting of Iraqi factions was the joint effort by a Republican official and a Democratic critic. If that spirit is contagious, it may even be possible for Congress to agree on how to end the war. But then again they are on this side of the water’s edge.

Will Bush's Victory Lap Backfire?

During his six-hour stay in a well-fortified air field in Anbar, the President may well have exacerbated sectarian tension in a way that will produce what Defense Secretary Robert Gates has called “squirting” of attacks to Shiite areas of Iraq.

"We had a good frank discussion," Bush said after his meeting with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and top leaders today, which translates as pressure to make progress in coming to terms with Sunnis in Iraq’s central government.

At the same time, the President promised more aid to Sunni tribal leaders who have only recently turned against car-bombing insurgents from Saudi Arabia for their own reasons, certainly not out of friendship for the U. S.

But as always, Bush may be out of his depth in the quagmire of sectarian hatred. “Mr. Maliki,” the New York Times reported, “has been deeply worried about the outreach to Sunni tribes, which has included American support for setting up armed neighborhood watch groups in Anbar and other Sunni areas.”

A political scientist funded by the Defense Department, Robert Pape, who has studied suicide attacks over the past 25 years, now predicts Shiite action against Americans soon. "We're heading toward the cocktail of conditions that favor suicide terrorism from the Shia," he says.

Pape points out that our troop buildup in Iraq, which has begun to target Shiite groups such as Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army as well as Sunni insurgents, will cause increasing numbers of Shiites to see Americans the way many Sunnis do--as occupiers, rather than liberators.

In Iraq, the choices always seem to involve frying pans and fires.

U.S. Casualties: Cooking the Books

The new biography of George W. Bush is titled “Dead Certain.” Today we get a cheery headline from the Pentagon, “Combat Deaths in Iraq Decline,” which should be called “Dead Wrong.”

Not only is the conclusion faulty, but the numbers themselves have been doctored. Using as its source iCasualties.org, the report says about fatalties that “by June, the number fell to 93, then to 66 in July and to 57 in August.” But the figures on the web site are 101, 79 and 81 respectively.

For those months a year earlier, the numbers were 61, 43 and 65. The only “decline” seems to be in the veracity of the people trying to make a case that the Surge is saving American lives.

Those numbers, right or wrong, represent young men and women with grieving families who will not find comfort in any statistics about this endless mayhem. But the least they, and we, should be able to expect is the simple truth of how many there are.

Today the President is in Anbar, saluting the “remarkable turnaround” there. The only turnaround worth hailing would be that of our troops starting to leave.

For more on this subject, see this.