Empty Suitors

It was not a good night for full heads of hair and empty suits, and Mitt Romney and John Edwards responded with characteristic self-centeredness.

After being badly beaten by Obama, Edwards gave what amounted to a victory speech that mentioned none of the other Democrats but rehashed his closing-argument case against corporations that squeaked him into second place over Hillary Clinton.

Romney, after watching all that money going down the Iowa drain, didn't seem to notice that he was in front of the TV cameras while Huckabee was doing his victory lap and therefore registered as poorly as all his commercials did during the campaign.

The Breck boys will be with us a while longer, but this doesn't look like a vintage year for middle-aged ingénues.

The Winner Is...Change

Instead of screaming, as he did after his third-place finish as a candidate in 2004, Howard Dean was in Iowa last night as his party's chairman beaming at a huge turnout that bodes well for Democrats' chances in November.

Dean's parochial delight is understandable, but the decisive Obama and Huckabee victories have a larger meaning--that voters are so hungry for change they are willing to entrust the future to the least-tested candidates in their parties rather than those with much more accumulated political experience, power and insider backing.

Both winners have George Bush to thank for that, but it may be a mixed blessing as they continue down the road toward nomination. When the exhilaration subsides, they will be tasked to deliver a detailed picture of their visions for the change they promise and challenged to defend its plausibility.

Huckabee's victory speech struck notes of caring and inclusiveness that Republicans badly need, while Obama rose to a new emotional pitch with echoes of Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy in promises to end political polarization, social divisions and a misbegotten war.

With all the messiness of its process, Iowa has spoken clearly in making the first statement of this political year. Next week New Hampshire and next month le deluge.

Winnowing the Fields in Iowa

As they get ready to do whatever it is they do, Iowans look more like they are picking prize livestock at a fair than choosing the next Leader of the Free World.

Unlike the Congressional elections of November 2006, there is less talk about Iraq, government corruption or a worrisome economy than about the candidates' character, style and commitment to "change."

Getting supporters among a fraction of the state's voters to caucus sites in the freezing cold, winning over non-supporters to become their fallback choices and placing a strong second, third or fourth are the means by which candidates will leave Iowa with a perceived victory or defeat.

They have a curious way of winnowing the fields in this heartland state.

Running in Place

Thursday night we will finally have some numbers, but will they tell us anything about where this bizarre election race is going?

Duration aside, the sight of more than a dozen people running for the White House this past year has seemed more an exercise in attrition than a political marathon--candidates huffing and puffing on treadmills, some falling off (Giuliani) and then climbing back on (McCain and Edwards), some watching each step carefully (Clinton and Romney) while others flaunt their freshness by picking up the pace (Huckabee and Obama). Fred Thompson strolls at the lowest setting, and Ron Paul runs around outside the gym, cussing out the machines.

But is any of this getting them--or us--anywhere? The rapid rise and fall of poll numbers suggests that, instead of choosing, voters are still shopping around and changing their minds as they watch and wait for someone to get off the track to nowhere and head in a direction that inspires them to follow.

Unless some of the candidates start taking such risks instead of pandering to their bases, they will keep running in circles until we finally pick a president out of exhaustion rather than with hope for the future.

Here Comes Huckabee...

Last week's news is translating into this week's poll numbers.

A new national Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll today shows Mike Huckabee threatening the national lead of Rudy Giuliani, who is apparently being damaged in voters' eyes by the montage of scandals building up around his campaign.

Nationally, Guiliani's lead has shrunk from 32-7 percent in October to only 23-17 now. Meanwhile, Huckabee seems to be solidifying his lead in Iowa where 60 Iowa pastors, some of them former backers of Sam Brownback, have endorsed the ex-Governor of Arkansas.

Huckabee leads Giuliani 20-18 percent when Republicans are asked which candidate says what he believes rather than what voters want to hear. Fifty-two percent say Giuliani's pro-abortion stance doesn't bother them, and 73 percent are untroubled by Romney's Mormon faith, an issue he will address in a speech tomorrow night.

As the primaries get closer, so does the race for the Republican nomination.