Is Rudy Through?

On Wednesday morning, either Rudy Giuliani or John Zogby is going wake up with a big headache. Running fourth in the state on which he has bet his presidential chances, Giuliani is nonetheless sure he's going to prevail in Florida's Tuesday primary.

"We're going to win this election by getting the vote out," Giuliani said at a pizza parlor in Port St. Lucie yesterday. "If we win here, we're going to win the nomination."

Zogby disagrees. "Giuliani is becoming less and less of a factor," he said yesterday, his poll showing John McCain and Mitt Romney tied at 30 percent, Mike Huckabee at 14 and Giuliani at 13, with only 9 percent of voters undecided.

For Zogby, who missed Hillary Clinton's late surge in New Hampshire, another blown call could be professional suicide, so it's safe to assume that his level of confidence in the Florida figures is high.

If he's right, the Giuliani comedy of errors will end this week. After leading in the national polls for a year and raising tons of money, America's Mayor decided to snooze through the early primary states and stake everything on the Sunshine State and its population of New York retirees.

By the time he started campaigning, Giuliani was caked with mud from scandals over his erstwhile partner Bernard Kerik and police protection for his current wife while he was still married to her predecessor.

Meanwhile, McCain, Romney and even Huckabee had picked up momentum, and in the past week, Giuliani lost a couple more points, perhaps as a result of his retired base reading the New York Times endorsement of McCain, sideswiping Rudy thus: "The real Mr. Giuliani, whom many New Yorkers came to know and mistrust, is a narrow, obsessively secretive, vindictive man who saw no need to limit police power...Mr. Giuliani’s arrogance and bad judgment are breathtaking."

If Zogby's figures hold up, Giuliani's best move would be to get out and get behind McCain. For a career prosecutor, Attorney General would not be a shabby consolation prize, if he could weather confirmation hearings about the shadowy clients of Giuliani Partners.

The Rudy Mud Keeps Rising

With Bernard Kerik as a character witness, Mr. 9/11 is fast becoming the most ethically challenged Presidential candidate since Bill Clinton came on the scene with a reputation as "Slick Willie."

Giuliani's sleight of hand about the hidden tryst fund that had taxpayers underwriting his courtship expenses enhanced his image this week as the guy with a green eyeshade who inspires other poker players to keep cutting the cards and calling for fresh decks.

To explain why hundreds of thousands of dollars in expenses for his security, presumably to protect against terrorists in beachwear while the Mayor was courting Judith Nathan in the Hamptons, were buried in accounts of obscure city offices, Giuliani fell back on that old reliable, a "political hit job." It was only done to speed up slow payments from the Police Department, he claims.

Kerik, Giuliani's police commissioner now under federal indictment for tax fraud and corruption, backs his former boss and business partner. “There would be no need for anyone to conceal his detail’s travel expenses,” Kerik insists.

But the current and former New York Police Commissioner Ray Kelly says he knows of no problems with the delay of payments before Giuliani was mayor or afterward.

Blogger Big Tent Democrat, a lawyer, points out related charges that the Mayor's then-mistress, according to a former city official, "used the PD as her personal taxi service," the same practice that led former NY State Comptroller Alan Hevesi to resign as prosecutors were preparing to indict him for felonies over using state employees to chauffeur his wife.

The New York Times, overflowing with Giuliani's truth abuses, did an omnibus piece yesterday about his penchant for "misleading statistics" to claim accomplishments during his tenure as mayor that are "incomplete, exaggerated or just plain wrong."

In coming weeks, there will be more Giuliani mud, some of it from Manhattan fire fighters over 9/11, much of it no doubt inspired by Fred Thompson's New York Chairman, Alfonse D'Amato aka Sen. Pothole, whose day job is lobbying for the Poker Players Alliance to overturn a federal ban on internet gambling. D'Amato is an expert on sleaze.

At some tipping point, this rising tide of sewage could overwhelm the Republican front runner's campaign. If not, we might have a President to make Bill Clinton look like Snow White.