Rash Judgments of 2007

If journalists are historians in a hurry, bloggers are first responders, dashing to each disaster in search of finding some sense, but there are times when smoke gets in our eyes.

For your entertainment and my mental health, herewith a few of the year's least prescient posts, out of more than a thousand, where this witness arrived at the scene and got it wrong:

In January, there was hope the proposed Surge would isolate Bush in his madness, followed by a fantasy that voters might look for authenticity in the next President, perhaps in a series of substantive debates.

Last spring, with all respect to the man's honor and integrity, there were qualms about John McCain's losing it. (Now in Iowa, he is being called the "Comeback Codger.")

Gen. Petraeus was compared to Eisenhower and seen as "the man who could end the war," but he ended up doing more than anyone else to prolong it and gave Congressional Republicans enough cover to keep backing Bush without fear of losing their jobs in next year's elections.

When Karl Rove resigned, the MSM and blogosphere were urged to stop paying attention to the "biggest bottom feeder of our time and look ahead to putting back some semblance of decency into American politics." (He's a columnist for Newsweek now.)

In September, it seemed that Fred Thompson's playing it cool could be a winning strategy, but he turned out to be playing it comatose.

As late as mid-November, Rudy Giuliani looked as bulletproof to scandal as Bill Clinton was in 1992. A few weeks later his poll numbers were diving in a mudslide of revelations.

Blogging is an attempt to share thoughts and feelings, to connect with others, but sometimes the medium delivers a defective message. Sorry, mea culpa and a resolution to try to do better. Happy New Year!

Time to End Bloomberg's Ambivalence

With Election Day '08 less than a year away, the Hamlet act is wearing thin for New York's Mayor. Soon he will have to decide whether to be or not to be a candidate for President.

Lately he seems to be leaning toward it. Last weekend in New Orleans, the symbolic site for Washington inadequacy, Mike Bloomberg proclaimed his principles of governing "a challenge to candidates to move beyond photo-ops, to reject stage-managed town hall meetings, and to talk about how we're going to use real accountability to solve real problems and take real questions from our constituents and give them real answers.

"They're a challenge to a rotten political culture that rewards sellouts and sycophants, and I've just always thought that we can do better."

After blasting the campaign as "pandering in full throttle," Bloomberg toured the hurricane-ravaged lower Ninth Ward and got an endorsement from one of the residents, Fats Domino.

At the same time, the Mayor is taking a cram course on foreign policy with Nancy Soderberg, a former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and a Clinton Administration foreign policy adviser, and has had his chief political aide, Kevin Sheekey, meeting with officials of Britain's Independence Party to discuss how a third-party bid could be launched.

Earlier this fall, Bloomberg dined with retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel, whose Republican domestic credentials, opposition to the war in Iraq and Washington know-how would pair up nicely with the Mayor's executive experience on an Independent ticket.

This month, Newsweek's editor Jon Meacham wrote a long story about Bloomberg's "American odyssey," blurbed, "He has the money and message to upend 2008."

But Bloomberg will have to decide soon. Even with a billion dollars, it takes time to put together a campaign and get on the ballot in 50 states.

As the major parties seem ready to nominate two unusual New Yorkers--a woman and a multi-married Italian-American--will another, described by CNN's Jeff Greenfield as "a vertically challenged Jewish billionaire," have the legs to make it a three-way?

Fred Thompson's Name Value

Political name recognition has gone Nutsy Fagin. This weekend the Washington Post has a disquisition on the power of the name “Fred.”

Anticipating the entry of Thompson into the Presidential race, an onomastician (scholar of the linguistics of names) tells us "The name Fred is basic and homey. It should give people a reassuring image."

Thompson augurs well, too, “a name with natural trochaic rhythm, which replicates a heartbeat and thus starts building appeal in the womb."

In 2004, we learn, there was a book titled "The Fred Factor" to extol the pleasures of hard work, and more promising still, further research reveals that “Fred” is derived from the German, meaning “Peace Ruler.”

In an earlier day, the candidate-to-be would have had to present his full appellation, Frederick Dalton Thompson. But Harry Truman started it all going downhill. Before him, Presidents had stately, sonorous names--Franklin, Herbert, Grover, Woodrow--but Truman was a not a Henry turned folksy, Harry was on his birth certificate.

After that, Dwight David Eisenhower was shortened to “Ike” by headline writers and the floodgates were open to Jimmy and Bill. Now every Tom, Dick or Harry can run for President, although two recent Georges have stemmed the tide temporarily.

Fred should do well against Hillary, which sounds like the name of the victim in an Agatha Christie mystery, but his chances against Barack, which means “blessed,” are etymologically uncertain.

Caesarian Delivery for Fred Thompson?

If the unborn can have growing pains, the Washington Post suggests that the Fred Thompson campaign is suffering, citing fund-raising shortfalls, staff shakeups and, that direst of ills, message atrophy.

"The campaign's been on the vine too long," a Republican strategist is quoted as saying.

All this suggests that the “Waiting for Godot” phase of the Thompson campaign will end sooner rather than later with a formal entrance on the Presidential stage to transform the long-time character actor into a political star.

The burning question for political analysts is whether Thompson’s laid-back style will have enough appeal for the Republican base, which usually favors more fire and brimstone.

His announcement performance may be crucial. Will he evoke Cicero (“How well he speaks”) or Demosthanes (“Let us march”). For a party in search of a hero, that may be the most crucial audition of Thompson’s life.

Dr. Reagan and Mr. Cheney

After rehearsing with Jay Leno last night, Fred Thompson is ready for his Fourth of July closeup, Mr. DeMille.

As an actor Thompson has always played himself, a folksy politician in a rumpled suit. Now he is taking on a reverse Jekyll-Hyde role in the ’08 picture to persuade Republican fire-breathers in the primaries before he gives his Reagan impersonation for the White House Oscar in November.

The supporting cast and props are in place starting with the Bush I reliables: the aging ingénue Mary Matalin, economic sage Lawrence Lindsey and Robert Novak, the devoted old media manservant, among the familiar faces for 20th century flashbacks.

But as the cast grows, the important players are coming from the Bush-Cheney troupe, the latest three certified as “hawkish” by the Weekly Standard: Mark Esper, an aerospace executive who was Bill Frist’s foreign policy guru; Joel Shin, who coordinated advisers for Bush’s 2000 campaign; and Dick Cheney’s older daughter, Liz, a Middle East expert with credentials that suggest an apple falling not far from the tree.

Thompson’s role as a Scooter Libby advocate and his mumblings about taking on Iran round out the picture of an Administration that would not offer a sharp break with the world view of the one we have now.

But none of that will be the focus of Thompson’s campaign. Instead there will be the image of (believe it or not) a Washington outsider who never wanted to be President but feels duty-bound to save us from the mess he clearly is getting ready to perpetuate.

Is this a great country or what?