Obama Beyond the Sound Bites

His press conferences are dazzling performances, but to get a glimpse of Barack Obama in the round takes the oldest journalistic setting of all, an extended one-on-one interview by David Leonhardt for this Sunday's New York Times Magazine.

Under questioning to show his state of mind rather than elicit sound bites, we get a picture of how the President sees the economic crisis in the long run beyond the bailouts and fixes.

"The critics have said, you’re doing too much, you can’t do all this at once," he observes. "Congress can’t digest everything. I just reject that. There’s nothing inherent in our political process that should prevent us from making these difficult decisions now, as opposed to 10 years from now or 20 years from now...

"It is true that as tough an economic time as it is right now, we haven’t had 42 months of 20, 30 percent unemployment. And so the degree of desperation and the shock to the system may not be as great. And that means that there’s going to be more resistance to any of these steps: reforming the financial system or reforming our health care system or doing something about energy...

But part of my job I think is to bridge that gap between the status quo and what we know we have to do for our future."

One of his goals in "the post-bubble economy," Obama says, is "restoring a balance between making things and providing services, whether it’s marketing or catering to people or servicing folks in some way. Those are all good jobs, and we’re not going to return to an economy in which manufacturing is as large a percentage as it was back in the 1940s"

He cites a campaign visit to a Seattle plant where welders and tradesmen were retrofitting buildings: "They’re not performing the same kind of manufacturing that their fathers might have, but with similar skill sets they are now making hospitals and schools and office buildings much more energy efficient, and...providing enormous value to the economy as a whole."

For such a future, the President points to "the smart grid," a huge project to modernize energy use, which is being hampered because "we don’t have enough trained electricians to lay down those lines." Government, he says, can help with "matching up the training with the need out there."

In looking at today's work force, Obama questions the level of education today by citing his grandmother who never went to college but worked her way up to being a bank vice-president. She "could write a better letter" than some of his former students at the University of Chicago Law School, he says.

As he pursues what he calls his "ruthless pragmatism" on the economy, Obama is asked about public impatience about not seeing improvement fast enough.

"In some ways it’s liberating," he says, "in the sense that whether I’m a one-termer or a two-termer, the problems are big enough and fundamental enough that I can’t sort of game it out. It’s not one of these things where I can say, Oh, you know what, if I time it just right, then the market is going to be going up and unemployment will be going down right before re-election. These are much bigger, much more systemic problems. And so in some ways you just kind of set aside the politics."

Global Pols Eye Obama

Along with the economic crisis, a political preoccupation around the world is trying to figure out what to make of the new American president.

Hamid Karzai joins the list today. Asked by CNN's Fareed Zakaria about Obama's statement that the Afghan leader has a "bunker mentality" and "seems detached" from what is happening in his country, Karzai attempts condescension:

"I was surprised to hear that statement. Perhaps it's because the administration has not yet put itself together. Perhaps they have not been given the information yet. And I hope as they settle down, as they learn more, we will see better judgment."

Back in this hemisphere, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, better known for invective, is trying soft soap. “Any day is propitious for talking with President Barack Obama,” he says while trying for another referendum this weekend to keep himself in power forever.

This marks a change from Chavez's assessment last month that Obama has "the same stench" as George W. Bush after the new president expressed concern about Venezuelan support of guerillas in Columbia.

Meanwhile, the noisiest tinpot pol of all, Mamoud Ahmadinejad, also in trouble back home, has been running through the demagogue's handbook, at first claiming Obama's willingness to talk a victory for Iran but is now trying on a statesman's costume.

"Right now, the world is entering the era of dialogue," Ahmadinejad told crowds celebrating the 30th anniversary of the Islamic revolution. "It's quite clear that real change should be fundamental, not just a tactical change, and it is quite clear that the Iranian nation will greet real changes...in a fair atmosphere with mutual respect."

According to a New York Times analysis, "Allies as well as regimes at odds with the United States are scoping out the new president, trying to anticipate his opening moves, and then positioning themselves for advantage."

But foreign policy alone won't determine how world leaders react to Obama. His director of national intelligence, Dennis Blair, told the Senate last week that other nations blame America for setting off the worldwide financial crisis, which has led to “increased questioning of U.S. stewardship of the global economy.”

As much as Obama tries to bring Change to the world scene, the success of his efforts to save the domestic economy will play a major part there as well.

Feeling Up in Down Times

It's a crisis of confidence, the experts tell us--the deepening worldwide depression is as much psychological as economic.

So while politicians haggle over tone-deaf solutions, it’s time to call in the psychologists to help families deal with the loss of jobs, homes and the sense of security that Americans have always taken for granted.

Into the breach today is a new blog by my long-time friend Marlin Potash, a psychologist who, after counseling high achievers and their families through the good times, has pithy advice for facing the bad.

The doctor is in. Here.

A Jungle Out There

Unlike 9/11, the current disaster is coming to us, not with a bang, but a series of whimpers, a slow rollout of economic devastation--lost jobs and homes, business failures and, most of all, an almost primitive fear of the future.

“Everyone is cutting prices, people, capital spending and all kinds of expenses," an economist tells the New York Times today. "It is almost a herd instinct.”

Even the herds are not immune, as some of the nation's great zoos, short of funds, are firing animals. "State budget cuts," CNN reports, "mean many zoos, aquariums and botanical gardens will lose crucial state funding for their exhibits...Zoo officials say some collections with 'short life cycles' will not be replaced when they die, and other animals could be sent to other zoos or wildlife sanctuaries."

At this point, even bad news is somewhat reassuring if it isn't as bad as expected. The decline in gross domestic product, at a 3.8 percent annual rate, fell short of the 5 to 6 percent that most economists had expected for the fourth quarter.

But the explanation is not cheering: Consumption collapsed so quickly that a plethora of unsold goods in inventory are being counted as part of the nation’s output.

Unless our leaders in Congress, who are meeting the crisis by rattling their cages in disarray, get their act together soon, we may all be looking for sanctuaries.

Less

After generations of expecting more from life than those who came before them, Americans are entering uncharted economic territory--the landscape of less.

Every day, new numbers map the terrain. As the Fed cuts interest rates to near-zero to stimulate spending, two out of every three Americans now say they have been hurt by the downturn and that the country has slipped into long-term decline.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds 66 percent worried about maintaining their standard of living, with almost two in 10 families experiencing a job loss in recent months, more than a quarter seeing their pay or hours reduced, and 15 percent falling behind on rent or mortgage payments.

The Consumer Confidence Index has hit an all-time low in its 41 years of existence, reflected in slow holiday sales.

Even with falling prices, a federal agency is predicting the steepest drop in gasoline consumption this year and next since 1979-1980, some of it the result of fewer people driving to work amid record job losses and business bankruptcies.

Less is definitely more on the minds of Americans than ever before as they look ahead to an economic recovery with tightened belts.

Walking the President-in-Waiting Walk

With all the demurrals about one president at a time, what Barack Obama said and didn't say today will be closely parsed by markets, publics and political leaders everywhere.

His appearance, flanked by a team of economic advisors, was meant to show a nervous world that he is on the case, ready to move on January 20th and as involved as he can be in the role of President-Elect.

"(A)s we monitor and address these immediate economic challenges," he said, "we will be moving forward in laying out a set of policies that will grow our middle class and strengthen our economy in the long term. We cannot afford to wait on moving forward on the key priorities that I identified during the campaign, including clean energy, health care, education, and tax relief for middle-class families.

"My transition team will be working on each of these priorities in the weeks ahead, and I intend to reconvene this advisory board to discuss the best ideas for responding to these immediate problems."

But Obama made it clear he favors "a stimulus package passed, either before or after inauguration...sooner rather than later,” if not in the lame-duck Congressional session, as soon as he takes office, and he called for an extension of unemployment benefits.

In the minuet between now and then, the President-in-Waiting is deferring to the one in the White House but making it clear he is ready to take new steps on his own. A worried world clearly would like to see the dance speeded up.

Transition and Tone

President-Elect Obama has little time to savor his historic victory and has to start addressing the challenges he stressed last night with a swift and sure transition from the paralyzed government now in place.

The names will be important, but decisiveness without delay would help lay to rest the doubts raised about his inexperience during the campaign and reassure an American public on the edge of panic about the economy.

Leon Panetta, the former White House chief of staff who has been advising his transition team, says, "You better damn well do the tough stuff up front, because if you think you can delay the tough decisions and tiptoe past the graveyard, you’re in for a lot of trouble. Make the decisions that involve pain and sacrifice up front.”

The rumors are that Obama will start by naming Rep. Rahm Emanuel, with experience in the Clinton White House as his chief of staff this week and will go on quickly to appoint future cabinet members.

In today's political climate, a new Treasury Secretary will be as critical as the choices for State and Defense, and whoever it is and the President-Elect will have to get involved in the financial crisis long before Obama raises his hand and takes the oath on January 20th.