Cancel the conventions, call off the debates and go straight to the Election Night scoreboard to see how large McCain's margin of victory has turned out to be. The pollsters and pundits are wrapping the story into a neat package: The Republicans went to school on Hillary Clinton's last-minute Obamacide and are finishing off what she started.
At last weekend's Saddleback shootout, the Democratic nominee did not pull the sound-bite trigger fast enough to gun down McCain's prefabbed POW anecdotes and pithy gates-of-hell promises to protect Americans from Osama, the Russians and whoever else is lurking out there in their paranoid fantasies.
Maureen Dowd, insightful as ever but much less funny, wraps it all up imagining a dead-of-night celebration by Hillary and Mac the Knife of their joint victory over the Senate upstart who wanted to take away the country they have been pandering so hard to take over.
We can turn our full attention to the Olympics, where the competition is keener and the judges aren't announcing the results before the contestants start their routines. Then, during the next two weeks of convention blather, we can all go to the beach and get a nice tan instead of watching political volleyball when we all know the score.
Showing posts with label election polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election polls. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Thursday, August 07, 2008
The Doubts-About-Obama Industry
The polls show a tightening race, reflecting how perniciously effective smear politics can still be. McCain campaign mud, at least for the time being, is filling in the blanks of an opponent largely unknown to some clueless segment of the electorate.
The dilemma for Obama is how to respond. Trying to stay about it all, as John Kerry did in 2004, is a losing strategy, but full-throttle counterattacks raise the risk of making Obama seem thin-skinned and easily rattled.
Ridicule is iffy. Yesterday the Democratic candidate got some mileage from tweaking McCain about his flipflop on tire inflation for better gas mileage, but too much of that could make him look unpleasantly sarcastic.
For the long haul, Barack Obama has to concentrate on defining himself and his politics for an electorate that wants change but at the same time is wary of risk. He should establish himself as strong enough to withstand smears and then let his surrogates and his eventual running mate deal with the most of the tactical back-and-forth.
Obama has to remember that, as much as he has excited millions of voters, there may be even more who know little about him and can be manipulated into seeing him as a dangerous choice. He has to make them see who he is and what he stands for.
Meanwhile, the doubt-raisers are getting more subtle. Yesterday, one of McCain's potential running mates, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, praised the Democrat ("Say what you will about Barack Obama," he told conservatives, "people gravitate when you have something positive to say"), but then attacked him for inexperience (“It is simply a matter of fact that less than four years ago he was a state legislator”).
Obama should leave it to others to point out that Pawlenty, who could be second in line to an aging president, was only a state legislator five years ago and concentrate on the "something positive" his presidency would offer Americans after eight years of Bush-Cheney negativity.
The dilemma for Obama is how to respond. Trying to stay about it all, as John Kerry did in 2004, is a losing strategy, but full-throttle counterattacks raise the risk of making Obama seem thin-skinned and easily rattled.
Ridicule is iffy. Yesterday the Democratic candidate got some mileage from tweaking McCain about his flipflop on tire inflation for better gas mileage, but too much of that could make him look unpleasantly sarcastic.
For the long haul, Barack Obama has to concentrate on defining himself and his politics for an electorate that wants change but at the same time is wary of risk. He should establish himself as strong enough to withstand smears and then let his surrogates and his eventual running mate deal with the most of the tactical back-and-forth.
Obama has to remember that, as much as he has excited millions of voters, there may be even more who know little about him and can be manipulated into seeing him as a dangerous choice. He has to make them see who he is and what he stands for.
Meanwhile, the doubt-raisers are getting more subtle. Yesterday, one of McCain's potential running mates, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, praised the Democrat ("Say what you will about Barack Obama," he told conservatives, "people gravitate when you have something positive to say"), but then attacked him for inexperience (“It is simply a matter of fact that less than four years ago he was a state legislator”).
Obama should leave it to others to point out that Pawlenty, who could be second in line to an aging president, was only a state legislator five years ago and concentrate on the "something positive" his presidency would offer Americans after eight years of Bush-Cheney negativity.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Obama's Fifty-Percent Barrier
As the new Gallup Poll shows him leading John McCain nationally by 49 to 40 per cent, there is the question. "Where's the Bounce?" from his apparently triumphant tour of the Mideast and Europe last week.
"Why is he not doing better?” the Times' Adam Nagourney asks today. "Even Mr. Obama’s advisers say they are uneasy about his difficulty so far in breaking the 50 percent barrier--a reminder, in poll after poll, that there are many Americans who are not yet ready to cast their lot with him, and may never be."
Some analysts compare Obama to Reagan in 1980, following the unpopular Jimmy Carter but needing to persuade voters he was credible as a president.
“It took a long while for the American public to test and look at Ronald Reagan before they were willing to go with him,” a Democratic pollster points out. “And then, when the dam broke open, it broke open very, very wide.”
It may be too optimistic to equate the comfort levels of American voters over a former actor with those of an African-American with less than a full term in the US Senate, but then again Ronald Reagan didn't have almost two years of exposure in a 24/7 media and internet world to familiarize them with what kind of president he might be.
With more than three months and two national conventions to go, Obama's prospects are looking good, 50 percent or not. Reagan had Jimmy Carter running against him as a living reminder of what the choice was, but John McCain keeps showing voters that he is George W. Bush's heir.
"Why is he not doing better?” the Times' Adam Nagourney asks today. "Even Mr. Obama’s advisers say they are uneasy about his difficulty so far in breaking the 50 percent barrier--a reminder, in poll after poll, that there are many Americans who are not yet ready to cast their lot with him, and may never be."
Some analysts compare Obama to Reagan in 1980, following the unpopular Jimmy Carter but needing to persuade voters he was credible as a president.
“It took a long while for the American public to test and look at Ronald Reagan before they were willing to go with him,” a Democratic pollster points out. “And then, when the dam broke open, it broke open very, very wide.”
It may be too optimistic to equate the comfort levels of American voters over a former actor with those of an African-American with less than a full term in the US Senate, but then again Ronald Reagan didn't have almost two years of exposure in a 24/7 media and internet world to familiarize them with what kind of president he might be.
With more than three months and two national conventions to go, Obama's prospects are looking good, 50 percent or not. Reagan had Jimmy Carter running against him as a living reminder of what the choice was, but John McCain keeps showing voters that he is George W. Bush's heir.
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