Crapshoot in Saudi Arabia

George W. Bush, who wants to talk about oil prices, is spending the day with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who wants to talk about pulverizing Iran.

Four months ago, when our President asked his Mideast friend for help, the price of crude was $91 a barrel. Yesterday it closed at $127. But the White House National Security Adviser says, "There are limits to how much that production can be ramped up without enormous investments of dollars and enormous investments of time."

Translation: The Saudis won't do much to help their lame-duck friend lower American gas prices between now and November unless they are spooked by the prospect of a President Obama. In 2004, they boosted Bush's reelection chances with a production surge.

On the Iranian front, the White House announced that Saudi Arabia will join the 70-nation Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism and the 85-nation Proliferation Security Initiative, and the U.S. will " work with" the Saudis to help protect their energy resources and develop "civilian nuclear power" to be used in medicine, industry and power generation.

Translation: The Saudis get vague promises of help with nuclear weapons if Iran pushes on with efforts to get them.

As always, the dice are loaded against us in the Mideast crapshoot, no matter what we do. When the Democrats take power next year, they will have to figure out a new way to play the game.

How Does a Recession Look?

Three out of four Americans think the country is a recession, the Zogby Poll reports today, and confidence in the economy, President Bush and Congress has plummeted.

"As oil prices hit record highs," the pollsters note, "Americans say they are prepared to take measures to compensate if oil prices continue to rise--37% plan to drive less, 24% would reduce retail and entertainment spending and 19% would try to conserve energy at home."

Retail sales are slowing down, and payrolls fell by 22,000 in January and 63,000 in February.

Anecdotal evidence is everywhere. Once-crowded restaurants have empty tables, and consumers are rethinking optional spending. In one of the wealthiest areas in Connecticut, a prominent dentist reports a sharp drop in cosmetic surgery as his hygienist tells of losing her overleveraged home to foreclosure.

Starbucks is closing 100 stores in the face of sales losses and has decided to stop offering hot breakfast sandwiches because customers complained about the aroma. As the Bush era stumbles toward a close, Americans are having a lot of trouble telling themselves to wake up and smell the coffee.

Things may get better when taxpayers start getting stimulus checks in May, but not many are willing to bet on it by buying more now.