Friday, April 11, 2008

McCain's Surge in the Polls

Suddenly public opinion results show John McCain leading Barack Obama as well as Hillary Clinton, and they recall the numbers of a year ago when Rudy Giuliani was beating every Republican in sight and Clinton was on her way to a coronation on the Democratic side.

In this long, long pre-election season, the pollsters and pundits should try harder to distinguish between near-term sentiment and electoral viability. Last year's wide Giuliani and Clinton leads turned out to be more about name recognition and TV-like familiarity ratings than serious thought about who would make the best president.

Isn't the current McCain bounce more about the fallout from the Obama-Clinton mud-fighting than about a sudden desire on the part of voters to see McCain in the White House? Have they fallen in love with him or are they just irritated by super-delegates, Michigan, Florida and other Democratic follies? Do these figures mean anything more than last year's did?

The polls we might want to pay attention to now are those that show Americans unhappier about the economy, the war and politicians of both parties than at any time in memory. In November, they will be deciding who has the best answers for their fears and doubts.

Meanwhile, the candidates are making pitches on "American Idol." Fascinating but, as Dick Cheney might say, so?


GRCOH said...

There was a time, actually in the last century, when I would have called myself an optimist. Not since 2000 though.

I bet there are a lot of Americans born before WWII, especially those who served in the military, that still can't believe we have become the country that favors pre-emptive war, or as we used to say in the real olden days, sneak attacks. I know, I know. They did it to us first. You're right...or are you?

McCain really doesn't need to "Surge in the Polls" in order to win. But really it doesn't matter in my state, Alabama. No matter who I vote for, I will give you odds that McCain will take Alabama by a wide margin. Any takers?

The truth is that it's a waste of time to worry about who might be our next decider though. The current decider has been so incompetent that whoever wins in November will find themself at war with the world.

Maybe it's time to pray?

Anonymous said...

An optimist is a guy who thinks his wife has given up cigarettes when he finds cigar butts around the house.

The Republicans have done to us what the cigar smoker was doing to the optimist's wife.