The bargaining in Baghdad is getting serious as Iraqis pressure the Bush Administration for last-minute concessions on a status-of-forces agreement to sanction US presence beyond the end of the year.
But the American election and Bush's imminent departure have changed the game. Gone is the McCain mantra of "victory with honor," a prescription for open-ended American presence, and what's left is only haggling over details about the pace of troop withdrawal and how much control Iraqis will assume over security efforts in the meantime.
Iraqi leaders, while openly welcoming Barack Obama's timetable, are losing the luxury of factional jockeying in their own parliament and facing a timetable to resolve Shiite-Sunni differences about the future of their country.
The only questions left are when and how, not if, the loss of American lives and the expenditure of $10 billion a month finally come to an end.
Showing posts with label Obama victory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Obama victory. Show all posts
Friday, November 07, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Exit-Polling the Early Turnout
The tea leaves are showing a pattern that becomes clearer every day in forecasting an Obama-Biden victory:
At least 2.2 million voters have already cast ballots, according to one estimate, pointing to a record early turnout. Of 500,000 in North Carolina, 56 percent were Democrats, 28 percent Republicans, 16 percent unaffiliated.
Among the polling places being swamped by turnout is Fairfax County in northern Virginia, an area pooh-poohed as not "the real Virginia" by McCain advisor Nancy Pfotenhauer, where early voters filled a meeting room and threatened to spill over into the parking lot.
Supporting evidence for the trend comes from the Gallup daily tracking poll, which shows Obama with a growing edge as the economy worsens, and from numbers crunchers at the National Journal, which headlines "In Endgame, Metrics Are Adding Up For Obama" and summarizes:
"As things are going now, this election would appear to be on a track to match Bill Clinton's 1992 5.6 percent margin over President George H.W. Bush, the question is whether it gets to Bush's 1988 7.7 percent win over Michael Dukakis or Clinton's 8.5 percent win over Robert Dole in 1996.
"Maybe some cataclysmic event occurs in the next two weeks that changes the trajectory of this election, but to override these factors, it would have to be very, very big."
Cataclysms and the Bradley Effect aside, with 13 days to go, the picture is coming into focus.
At least 2.2 million voters have already cast ballots, according to one estimate, pointing to a record early turnout. Of 500,000 in North Carolina, 56 percent were Democrats, 28 percent Republicans, 16 percent unaffiliated.
Among the polling places being swamped by turnout is Fairfax County in northern Virginia, an area pooh-poohed as not "the real Virginia" by McCain advisor Nancy Pfotenhauer, where early voters filled a meeting room and threatened to spill over into the parking lot.
Supporting evidence for the trend comes from the Gallup daily tracking poll, which shows Obama with a growing edge as the economy worsens, and from numbers crunchers at the National Journal, which headlines "In Endgame, Metrics Are Adding Up For Obama" and summarizes:
"As things are going now, this election would appear to be on a track to match Bill Clinton's 1992 5.6 percent margin over President George H.W. Bush, the question is whether it gets to Bush's 1988 7.7 percent win over Michael Dukakis or Clinton's 8.5 percent win over Robert Dole in 1996.
"Maybe some cataclysmic event occurs in the next two weeks that changes the trajectory of this election, but to override these factors, it would have to be very, very big."
Cataclysms and the Bradley Effect aside, with 13 days to go, the picture is coming into focus.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)