Robert Stein 1924-2014

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Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Gallup Rates Rove's Rant

The “architect” spent his farewell weekend on TV repeating with glee that Hillary Clinton was unelectable in ’08 because of her unprecedented high negative ratings in the polls. Today the Gallup Poll people responded.

In the usual long-winded, cautious verbiage of pollsters, the answer is that Rove is full of it. Among others, his own creation, George W. Bush, proves the point:

“A review of Gallup poll data suggests that Hillary Clinton's current high unfavorable ratings are not unprecedented. Other candidates have had similarly high unfavorable ratings at various points in presidential election campaigns in previous years. Two of these candidates--George W. Bush in 2004 and Bill Clinton in 1992 --went on to win the election.

“Additionally, Rove's assumptions that Hillary Clinton's candidacy is ‘fatally flawed’ run counter to the historical finding that candidates' images often change, sometimes dramatically, as the campaign progresses. In other words, Clinton's ultimate electability will likely be determined more by what happens in the next 15 months while she campaigns than by what Americans think of her now.”

There is only one “fatally flawed” figure in all this, and he’s going back to Texas at the end of the month.

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