Bulletin From the Bush Bunker

One of the few lines of communication into the besieged White House is Plame-thrower Robert Novak, who set off l’affaire Libby by naming Joe Wilson’s wife in print.

From the entrails of Novak’s recent columns, things do not go well for the Decider. Today he reports on the pre-holiday “scouting trip” of the President’s Security Adviser Stephen Hadley to check the mood of senior Senate Republicans.

“The tone set by Hadley,” Novak writes, “signaled that the White House did not understand that Lugar, in his fateful speech on the Senate floor the night of June 25, was sending a distress signal to Bush...that it is imperative he act now. Hadley was told that it is not too late to go back to the Iraq Study Group's 79 recommendations, neglected since their release in December.”

Novak’s account suggests that Bush’s deafness continues: “Based on what Hadley said, one senator concluded that ‘they just do not recognize the depth of the difficulty they are in.’”

In his convoluted style, Novak goes around the barn with Democratic Sen. Carl Levin reporting on generals who turned down the war “czar” job because "hawks within the administration, including Vice President Cheney, remain more powerful than the pragmatists looking for an exit strategy in Iraq."

This month, with an appropriations bill and a House anti-war resolution coming up, Congressional Republicans are going to have to join Democrats in speaking louder and more clearly to be heard. All indicators, including their message through Novak today, are that they will.

Stop-the-War Senate Numbers Almost There

Before the 2002 resolution to invade Iraq, Robert Byrd warned that, when Senators changed their minds, it would take a two-thirds vote to get out. After 3500 lives, billions of dollars and four years of bitter defeat, that number is within reach.

Dick Lugar’s speech Monday night will give colleagues cover for retreat. He was joined yesterday by Sen. George Voinovich with a letter to the President saying that the Iraqis should “know we are indeed disengaging."

Add these two respected defectors to the Republican list of Chuck Hagel, John Warner, Norm Coleman, who has Al Franken nipping at his heels for reelection in Minnesota and Gordon Smith, who has called the war “absurd, even criminal.”

Endangered John Sununu, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe are ready to fall in. Sam Brownback can take the opportunity to become the first ’08 hopeful to separate himself from the pack.

That adds up to 60, with pressure on Mitch McConnell, Elizabeth Dole, Lamar Alexander, John Cornyn, Saxby Chamblis, Pat Roberts, Pete Domeneci and Jeff Sessions who will have to face voters with falling approval ratings and/or U.S. Attorney scandals, among various other Bush-induced deficits.

Jockeying for the best surrender terms will begin next month with John Warner’s amendment to the defense authorization bill. There will be other face-saving proposals as well as disputes over timetables and benchmarks, but the numbers for getting out are getting there.

"Reasonable Republican" Ready for Plan B

When Richard Lugar says the fat lady is singing, it’s time to start heading for the exit.

Former Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Lugar has been the closest approximation to that oxymoron, “a reasonable Republican,” appearing side by side with Joe Biden on Meet the Press for the past three years to defend the war in Iraq.

Now Lugar says it’s time to go--sooner rather than later. On the Senate floor last night, he said, “A course change should happen now... If the President waits until the presidential election campaign is in full swing, the intensity of confrontation on Iraq is likely to limit U.S. options...our political timeline will not support a rational course adjustment in Iraq, unless such an adjustment is initiated very soon.”

Before the Surge, Lugar circumspectly recommended a “Plan B” as a fallback. Now he is saying openly that it’s time, and waiting until the end of summer will make agreement even harder.

The number of die-hard Republicans is shrinking, and the Democrats who want to end the war instead of grandstanding about it should be working with Lugar and those who will follow his lead to start getting it done.