Obama vs Karzai Over Exit Strategy

Barack Obama is doing what George W. Bush failed to do in Iraq--looking for "where the off-ramps are," according to a White House official.

As the President starts a nine-day Asia trip, he leaves behind the message that his Afghanistan decision has been strongly influenced by Karl Eikenberry, the US ambassador who was once military commander there, whose doubts about Hamid Karzai are reflected in a White House statement:

"The President believes that we need to make clear to the Afghan government that our commitment is not open-ended. After years of substantial investments by the American people, governance in Afghanistan must improve in a reasonable period of time."

So begins the crucial battle there--Obama vs Karzai--to get Afghanistan out of its sinkhole of corruption and incompetence far enough to be able to stand on its own and allow US troops to withdraw in a foreseeable time.

Administration officials are reported to be pushing Karzai for a list of "deliverables" to prove that he is cracking down on corruption, including naming able technocrats to top cabinet positions rather than warlords who backed his re-election.

Cynics will claim that Obama does not have the leverage for this kind of arm-twisting--that we are stuck in Afghanistan and Karzai knows it. A former US ambassador there puts it this way:

“You know that scene in the movie ‘Blazing Saddles,’ when Cleavon Little holds the gun to his own head and threatens to shoot himself? The argument that we could pull out of Afghanistan if Karzai doesn’t do what we say is stupid. We couldn’t get the Pakistanis to fight if we leave Afghanistan; we couldn’t accomplish what we’ve set out to do. And Karzai knows that.”

Maybe so, but it's heartening to have a Commander-in-Chief searching this hard for an exit strategy before he commits tens of thousands of troops into harm's way.

There are rumors that the President may make a surprise trip to Kabul at the end of his Asia travels and confront Karzai face to face. If he does, he will have to do better in that battle than he has so far in the one with Republicans over health care.

At the end of his first year, Barack Obama is going to show us what kind of fighter he really is. Can Change come with brass knuckles?

George Bush's Groucho Moment

Now that Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki has suggested we’ve overstayed our welcome, the President should take a look at Groucho Marx’s classic example of a graceful exit from an embarrassing situation:

Hello, I must be going/I cannot stay/I came to say/
I must be going/I'm glad I came/But just the same/I must be going... Ta-Ta!

Protocol requires a polite response to the PM’s statement that Americans can leave “any time they want” and his top aide’s saying we are treating Iraq like "an experiment in an American laboratory."

For the sake of diplomacy, as we go out the door, we should be deaf to the complaint that our military is committing human rights violations, embarrassing the Iraqi government and cooperating with "gangs of killers" in the campaign against al-Qaeda.

But no good guest should overlook his host’s heavy hints that the party’s over. Groucho never would have. Here are our hats, what’s our hurry?

"Reasonable Republican" Ready for Plan B

When Richard Lugar says the fat lady is singing, it’s time to start heading for the exit.

Former Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Lugar has been the closest approximation to that oxymoron, “a reasonable Republican,” appearing side by side with Joe Biden on Meet the Press for the past three years to defend the war in Iraq.

Now Lugar says it’s time to go--sooner rather than later. On the Senate floor last night, he said, “A course change should happen now... If the President waits until the presidential election campaign is in full swing, the intensity of confrontation on Iraq is likely to limit U.S. options...our political timeline will not support a rational course adjustment in Iraq, unless such an adjustment is initiated very soon.”

Before the Surge, Lugar circumspectly recommended a “Plan B” as a fallback. Now he is saying openly that it’s time, and waiting until the end of summer will make agreement even harder.

The number of die-hard Republicans is shrinking, and the Democrats who want to end the war instead of grandstanding about it should be working with Lugar and those who will follow his lead to start getting it done.