Robert Stein 1924-2014

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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Exit-Polling the Early Turnout

The tea leaves are showing a pattern that becomes clearer every day in forecasting an Obama-Biden victory:

At least 2.2 million voters have already cast ballots, according to one estimate, pointing to a record early turnout. Of 500,000 in North Carolina, 56 percent were Democrats, 28 percent Republicans, 16 percent unaffiliated.

Among the polling places being swamped by turnout is Fairfax County in northern Virginia, an area pooh-poohed as not "the real Virginia" by McCain advisor Nancy Pfotenhauer, where early voters filled a meeting room and threatened to spill over into the parking lot.

Supporting evidence for the trend comes from the Gallup daily tracking poll, which shows Obama with a growing edge as the economy worsens, and from numbers crunchers at the National Journal, which headlines "In Endgame, Metrics Are Adding Up For Obama" and summarizes:

"As things are going now, this election would appear to be on a track to match Bill Clinton's 1992 5.6 percent margin over President George H.W. Bush, the question is whether it gets to Bush's 1988 7.7 percent win over Michael Dukakis or Clinton's 8.5 percent win over Robert Dole in 1996.

"Maybe some cataclysmic event occurs in the next two weeks that changes the trajectory of this election, but to override these factors, it would have to be very, very big."

Cataclysms and the Bradley Effect aside, with 13 days to go, the picture is coming into focus.

1 comment:

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