$700 Billion or Bust? Why?

The nagging questions are how the Bush Treasury Department arrived at that sacrosanct figure, why it's not negotiable and what's wrong with authorizing it in installments.

Sen. Chuck Schumer, who comes from a tradition of never buying retail when there's an alternative, asked Henry Paulson why it would not make sense to put $150 or so billion into the markets and see what happens but got a bristling rebuke:

"I think that would be a grave mistake," Paulson answered. "This is about market confidence and the tools to do the job," he added, insisting he needed the full amount to deal with unanticipated contingencies.

Unanticipated? That's an apt description of the entire mess that his Treasury Department was slow to recognize but now claims with absolute certitude that it knows how to clean up, but only if taxpayers commit an enormous amount to a lame-duck Administration, no questions asked.

But, to the credit of Congress, members are not responding meekly to the pre-election panic this time as they did to the 2002 resolution to invade Iraq, but are negotiating for oversight and transparency, executive pay limits and equity interest on taxpayers’ behalf as well as a provision to allow bankruptcy judges to revise mortgage terms.

Their constituents should be urging them to adjust the price tag too to keep from tying the hands of the new President and Congress by giving away the store now.

This morning, President Bush will be trying to make his last sale in office to Barack Obama and John McCain but, to the credit of both, there are signs that they won't buy in whole-heartedly.

Paulson has no sure way of knowing how much is needed to calm the credit markets but, like his leader, is stubbornly arguing that he should be the Decider, even though he will be long gone if and when he turns out to be wrong.

Iraq: The Price of Silence

There was an anti-war rally in Pittsburgh yesterday. Three protesters showed up.

Meanwhile, in Iraq, suicide bombers are killing people in Diyala and our troops are killing people in Baghdad, prompting Sunni leaders to journey from Anbar to stand shoulder to shoulder with Shiites to show solidarity against the US in Sadr City and the peace-loving Iranians to suspend talks with us on Iraqi security.

Nonetheless, about 3500 of the 30,000 additional American troops sent in last year are preparing to come home, leading a US general to observe, "The continued drawdown of surge brigades demonstrates continued progress in Iraq."

They will be coming home as the director of the National Institute of Mental Health predicts that the number of suicides among veterans of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan may exceed the combat death toll because of inadequate mental health care.

On the campaign trail, the presidential candidates have a lot to say about a gas-tax holiday but nothing about a bloody war that keeps getting more bizarre by the day and eating up more of our money than rising prices at the pump.

Maybe they'll get to it after the summer driving season is over.

McCain's Surge in the Polls

Suddenly public opinion results show John McCain leading Barack Obama as well as Hillary Clinton, and they recall the numbers of a year ago when Rudy Giuliani was beating every Republican in sight and Clinton was on her way to a coronation on the Democratic side.

In this long, long pre-election season, the pollsters and pundits should try harder to distinguish between near-term sentiment and electoral viability. Last year's wide Giuliani and Clinton leads turned out to be more about name recognition and TV-like familiarity ratings than serious thought about who would make the best president.

Isn't the current McCain bounce more about the fallout from the Obama-Clinton mud-fighting than about a sudden desire on the part of voters to see McCain in the White House? Have they fallen in love with him or are they just irritated by super-delegates, Michigan, Florida and other Democratic follies? Do these figures mean anything more than last year's did?

The polls we might want to pay attention to now are those that show Americans unhappier about the economy, the war and politicians of both parties than at any time in memory. In November, they will be deciding who has the best answers for their fears and doubts.

Meanwhile, the candidates are making pitches on "American Idol." Fascinating but, as Dick Cheney might say, so?

No Whitewater for Giuliani

Is the 9/11 sainthood of America's Mayor too radioactive for opponents to attack?

A headline in today's Washington Post says, "Giuliani Campaign Tries to Minimize Fallout From Kerik Indictment" but so far other Republican Presidential candidates have tiptoed around the subject. As contrast, imagine the reaction if Kerik had been one of Hillary Clinton's closest associates.

"Mitt Romney," the Post reports, "declined to comment on whether Kerik's legal woes might pose a political problem for Giuliani, but he called Kerik's indictment on tax fraud and other charges 'very sad and disappointing.'"

John McCain had former Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge at his side when he alluded to Kerik. "Supposedly his mission was to help train Iraqi police. He stayed a couple of months, got up and left," McCain said. "That should have been part of anybody's judgment before they would recommend that individual to be head of the Department of Homeland Security."

Only his campaign manager went any further. "A president's judgment matters," he said in a memo, "and Rudy Giuliani has repeatedly placed personal loyalty over regard for the facts."

Even this tame criticism brought a reaction from Giuliani. “I'd be very surprised if John did that,” he said. “John is a very good friend. I probably have about 20 quotes from John since all of this became public...[describing] me as a hero.” He claimed that not vetting Kerik carefully enough was a "mistake."

Giuliani is talking about the former bodyguard and driver he appointed as Police Commissioner despite reports of mob links and over the objection of half his Mayoral Cabinet in 2000, kept at his side on 9/11 and afterward made a partner of his consulting firm with the slogan of "Integrity, Optimism, Courage, Preparedness, Communication, Accountability."

Giuliani is also the godfather of two of Kerik's children.

In "Leadership," the best-selling book the former mayor wrote in 2002, there is a chapter titled "Surround Yourself With Great People." If there is a sequel, it will have to include advice on "How to Dump and Distance Yourself From Great People Who Have Been Indicted for Corruption."

So far Giuliani has been masterful at that aspect of 21st century leadership.

Congress' Sound of Silence

The theme music in the halls these days should be the Simon and Garfunkel lament about “People talking without speaking/People hearing without listening/People writing songs that voices never share/And no one dared/Disturb the sound of silence.”

The post-Petraeus mood in both Houses is restless despair with Senate Democrats losing interest in the bill to “de-authorize” the war and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi poignantly asking centrists to propose some new plan to break the stalemate over getting us out of Iraq.

Meanwhile, Democrat Presidential candidates are talking about health care, immigration, anything but the war on the campaign trail.

It’s been a long, long time from May to September, and the party that took control of Congress with promises to get us out of the Middle East mess is well on the way toward owning it in the public’s eyes.

They may want to recall another line from the old song: “Silence like a cancer grows.”

Candidates Fight Electorate Ennui

Most Americans say the ’08 Presidential campaign so far has been annoying and a waste of time. One survey finds 56 percent of likely voters feel that way while only 29 percent call the debates and other stuff interesting and informative.

We may be in a forest-and-trees situation here. Certainly the prospect of all these months, with more to come, of posturing, ploys, spats and gotchas has been depressing, but nonetheless, voters are beginning to get some sense of who the candidates are or say they are.

Not surprisingly, the front runners have defined themselves most sharply. Hillary Clinton offers pre-Bush integrity, competence and caring with the added benefit of moving us beyond gender stereotypes. Rudy Giuliani will keep us safe, safe, safe by being “one of the four or five best known Americans in the world," thereby discouraging terrorists from messing with us. Didn’t he face them down all by himself on 9/11?

The runners-up are still in the conceptual stage. Obama is the picture of freshness and youthful idealism while Fred Thompson is a slow-developing snapshot of old-fashioned by-gosh conservative ideals, but neither is in sharp focus yet.

After the win and place spots, the show candidates are photogenic, but Mitt Romney keeps weaving out of the frame while John Edwards’ grim sincerity seems frozen in place.

Back there in the crowd scene, none of the bit players are coming forward, with the possible exception of Mike Huckabee, but he seems to be auditioning for second billing.

Comic relief, in the form of Alan Keyes and maybe even Newt Gingrich may be on the way, but meanwhile, the process is all we have and, fairly soon, like it or not, we’re going to have start paying closer attention.