Last week's news is translating into this week's poll numbers.
A new national Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll today shows Mike Huckabee threatening the national lead of Rudy Giuliani, who is apparently being damaged in voters' eyes by the montage of scandals building up around his campaign.
Nationally, Guiliani's lead has shrunk from 32-7 percent in October to only 23-17 now. Meanwhile, Huckabee seems to be solidifying his lead in Iowa where 60 Iowa pastors, some of them former backers of Sam Brownback, have endorsed the ex-Governor of Arkansas.
Huckabee leads Giuliani 20-18 percent when Republicans are asked which candidate says what he believes rather than what voters want to hear. Fifty-two percent say Giuliani's pro-abortion stance doesn't bother them, and 73 percent are untroubled by Romney's Mormon faith, an issue he will address in a speech tomorrow night.
As the primaries get closer, so does the race for the Republican nomination.
Showing posts with label '08 Republican nomination. Show all posts
Showing posts with label '08 Republican nomination. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Friday, November 09, 2007
Rudy's Albatross
The indictment today of Bernard Kerik promises to be much more than a case of a politically incorrect crony that Rudy Giuliani can fob off as easily as he has shed so much of the past in his campaign.
America's Mayor has already admitted a "mistake" in recommending his old friend for the Bush Cabinet position of Director of Homeland Security, but there are booby traps galore in the history of their post-9/11 partnership, Giuliani-Kerik, which was paid millions of dollars for advising companies, doing federal work and consulting with clients overseas.
In 2006, Giuliani's former Police Commissioner pled guilty to ethics violations after an investigation by the Bronx District Attorney's Office and was ordered to pay $221,000. Today's announcement will be, according to the New York Times, that a grand jury has voted to indict Kerik "on conspiracy to commit wire and mail fraud, and substantive counts of wire and mail fraud, under a statute often used in corruption cases, according to people briefed on the vote."
The unveiling of Kerik's history promises a pattern of corruption, and Giuliani is going to have to do a lot better than throwing his former partner and best friend off the bus with a political shrug.
It has opened a garbage can of worms about Giuliani's amassing of millions from his 9/11 aura with such intensity that he couldn't find time to serve on the Iraq Study Commission.
Voters are going to be asking who will protect them from the man who is promising to protect America from foreign terrorists.
America's Mayor has already admitted a "mistake" in recommending his old friend for the Bush Cabinet position of Director of Homeland Security, but there are booby traps galore in the history of their post-9/11 partnership, Giuliani-Kerik, which was paid millions of dollars for advising companies, doing federal work and consulting with clients overseas.
In 2006, Giuliani's former Police Commissioner pled guilty to ethics violations after an investigation by the Bronx District Attorney's Office and was ordered to pay $221,000. Today's announcement will be, according to the New York Times, that a grand jury has voted to indict Kerik "on conspiracy to commit wire and mail fraud, and substantive counts of wire and mail fraud, under a statute often used in corruption cases, according to people briefed on the vote."
The unveiling of Kerik's history promises a pattern of corruption, and Giuliani is going to have to do a lot better than throwing his former partner and best friend off the bus with a political shrug.
It has opened a garbage can of worms about Giuliani's amassing of millions from his 9/11 aura with such intensity that he couldn't find time to serve on the Iraq Study Commission.
Voters are going to be asking who will protect them from the man who is promising to protect America from foreign terrorists.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Huckabee, Another Jimmy Carter?
David Brooks of the New York Times has discovered the former Arkansas governor in his column today.
“He is a solid conservative who is both temperamentally and substantively different from the conservatives who have led the country over the past few years,” Brooks writes. “He’s rising in the polls, especially in Iowa. His popularity with the press corps suggests he could catch a free media wave that would put him in the top tier. He deserves to be there.”
Brooks may be right, although there are few signs that the Conservative Establishment is ready to embrace him for qualities that many non-Republicans respect. In the unlikely event that they do, another question arises: Could he be another Jimmy Carter?
In the wake of Nixon’s traumatic tenure, voters turned to a sincere man of faith who promised “I will never lie to you” and then proved to be too naïve to deal with the complexities of international affairs.
Carter floundered during the Mariel boatlift when Castro sent criminals and mental cases to us along with legitimate political refugees, and he was at a loss when Iranian militants stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held 70 Americans hostage for more than a year. He ended up puzzling over a “national malaise.”
Now Brooks notes about Huckabee, “His foreign policy thinking is thin. Some of his policy ideas seem to come off the top of his head.”
In the relief to be rid of Bush and escape the likes of Giuliani, Thompson and Romney, it’s possible that Republicans may turn to someone as apparently sane and sensible as Huckabee, but if they do, the rest of us will have to look very closely about what lies under that attractive surface.
“He is a solid conservative who is both temperamentally and substantively different from the conservatives who have led the country over the past few years,” Brooks writes. “He’s rising in the polls, especially in Iowa. His popularity with the press corps suggests he could catch a free media wave that would put him in the top tier. He deserves to be there.”
Brooks may be right, although there are few signs that the Conservative Establishment is ready to embrace him for qualities that many non-Republicans respect. In the unlikely event that they do, another question arises: Could he be another Jimmy Carter?
In the wake of Nixon’s traumatic tenure, voters turned to a sincere man of faith who promised “I will never lie to you” and then proved to be too naïve to deal with the complexities of international affairs.
Carter floundered during the Mariel boatlift when Castro sent criminals and mental cases to us along with legitimate political refugees, and he was at a loss when Iranian militants stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held 70 Americans hostage for more than a year. He ended up puzzling over a “national malaise.”
Now Brooks notes about Huckabee, “His foreign policy thinking is thin. Some of his policy ideas seem to come off the top of his head.”
In the relief to be rid of Bush and escape the likes of Giuliani, Thompson and Romney, it’s possible that Republicans may turn to someone as apparently sane and sensible as Huckabee, but if they do, the rest of us will have to look very closely about what lies under that attractive surface.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Republican Race for Running Mate
Sam Brownback, who started his run for President by spending a night in jail, is free at last. Tomorrow he will leave the Oz of campaign country and be back in Kansas to announce he is dropping out.
As a bona fide conservative, the Kansas Senator will automatically join Mike Huckabee, who still has hopes, as a leading contender for the ticket of Republican front runners who leave the Rev. James Dobson and other Religious Rightists as unbelievers.
Since Brownback has been bashing Mitt Romney, he may have an inside track with Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson or particularly John McCain, with whom he agrees on immigration. (The new issue of Time proclaims “McCain Is Back.")
Brownback signaled his possible departure from Oz last week by joining with a Democratic Presidential candidate in spearheading a Senate Resolution for the partitioning of Iraq.
“This plan,” he proclaimed, “wasn't pushed by members of one party. Instead, Senator Joe Biden and I, who are consistently on opposite ends politically on economic and social issues, worked together to build consensus to push the legislation forward and on to a resounding victory.”
A man who talks like that has clearly given up his hopes of succeeding George Bush.
As a bona fide conservative, the Kansas Senator will automatically join Mike Huckabee, who still has hopes, as a leading contender for the ticket of Republican front runners who leave the Rev. James Dobson and other Religious Rightists as unbelievers.
Since Brownback has been bashing Mitt Romney, he may have an inside track with Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson or particularly John McCain, with whom he agrees on immigration. (The new issue of Time proclaims “McCain Is Back.")
Brownback signaled his possible departure from Oz last week by joining with a Democratic Presidential candidate in spearheading a Senate Resolution for the partitioning of Iraq.
“This plan,” he proclaimed, “wasn't pushed by members of one party. Instead, Senator Joe Biden and I, who are consistently on opposite ends politically on economic and social issues, worked together to build consensus to push the legislation forward and on to a resounding victory.”
A man who talks like that has clearly given up his hopes of succeeding George Bush.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
McCain's Tenuous Comeback
Once the media writes an obituary, the departed is supposed to stay dead. But John McCain is showing signs of new life with David Petraeus as his savior and Don Rumsfeld as the straw man to distance himself from Bush’s bungling of Iraq.
The Straight Talk Express, now re-dubbed “No Surrender,” is on the road again picking up some momentum but, as seen on “Meet the Press” today, McCain will have to overcome not only other Republican contenders but his own tendency toward testiness under fire.
In debating John Kerry, he started out with a smooth, subdued testimonial to his own good judgment about pacifying Iraq that was ignored by Rumsfeld et al but is now being vindicated by Petraeus’ “success.”
But as Kerry challenged him, McCain’s smile froze, jaws tightened and he kept using his tell-tale expression of hostility, “My friend”--exposing the hot-headed impatience with criticism that is the other side of the affability McCain always shows with Jon Stewart.
As the oldest candidate in the Republican field, it will be hard enough to emulate Bill Clinton’s feat in 1992 as the “Comeback Kid,” but McCain has some traction now as the most experienced potential Commander-in-Chief to navigate a Republican course toward peace in Iraq as the polls show Fred Thompson slowing the effects of Rudy Giuliani’s conversion to conservatism.
But if McCain is to make his case for a strong, steady hand at the helm in the face of terrorist turbulence, he had better start showing it.
If not, media pundits will be ready and waiting to justify their obituaries.
The Straight Talk Express, now re-dubbed “No Surrender,” is on the road again picking up some momentum but, as seen on “Meet the Press” today, McCain will have to overcome not only other Republican contenders but his own tendency toward testiness under fire.
In debating John Kerry, he started out with a smooth, subdued testimonial to his own good judgment about pacifying Iraq that was ignored by Rumsfeld et al but is now being vindicated by Petraeus’ “success.”
But as Kerry challenged him, McCain’s smile froze, jaws tightened and he kept using his tell-tale expression of hostility, “My friend”--exposing the hot-headed impatience with criticism that is the other side of the affability McCain always shows with Jon Stewart.
As the oldest candidate in the Republican field, it will be hard enough to emulate Bill Clinton’s feat in 1992 as the “Comeback Kid,” but McCain has some traction now as the most experienced potential Commander-in-Chief to navigate a Republican course toward peace in Iraq as the polls show Fred Thompson slowing the effects of Rudy Giuliani’s conversion to conservatism.
But if McCain is to make his case for a strong, steady hand at the helm in the face of terrorist turbulence, he had better start showing it.
If not, media pundits will be ready and waiting to justify their obituaries.
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Fred Thompson Blowing Smoke in Iowa
The newest Republican candidate started to close the gaffe gap yesterday by telling Iowans why the Iraqis are turning against Al Qaeda. "They said, 'You gotta quit smoking,’” he observed in explaining why tribes in Anbar province are coming over to our side.
Aside from that revelation, Fox News called his campaigning “lackluster,” with hazy answers on gay marriage and health care.
"There's a fair amount of rhetoric there, but in terms of action and results we just don't see it,” says right-wing activist, Richard Viguerie. “It's almost like he's gotten another Hollywood role where he's supposed to play a conservative."
According to the conservative house organ National Review, Thompson “has done nothing, anywhere, ever. The Hubble Telescope could not find what he has done, because he has not done it. It would be unwise to put such a man in the White House at this moment in history.”
To top it all, opponents have dusted off a 1996 Thompson memo titled “Breaking from the Republican Pack” that trumpets examples of his "legislative independence from 'the party line'" when he "voted against the Republican majority," listing liberal positions on campaign finance reform, consumer protections and tort reform to rebut Democratic charges of being too partisan.
Thompson may be beginning to wonder if he declared too soon,
Aside from that revelation, Fox News called his campaigning “lackluster,” with hazy answers on gay marriage and health care.
"There's a fair amount of rhetoric there, but in terms of action and results we just don't see it,” says right-wing activist, Richard Viguerie. “It's almost like he's gotten another Hollywood role where he's supposed to play a conservative."
According to the conservative house organ National Review, Thompson “has done nothing, anywhere, ever. The Hubble Telescope could not find what he has done, because he has not done it. It would be unwise to put such a man in the White House at this moment in history.”
To top it all, opponents have dusted off a 1996 Thompson memo titled “Breaking from the Republican Pack” that trumpets examples of his "legislative independence from 'the party line'" when he "voted against the Republican majority," listing liberal positions on campaign finance reform, consumer protections and tort reform to rebut Democratic charges of being too partisan.
Thompson may be beginning to wonder if he declared too soon,
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Will Fred Thompson Close the Gaffe Gap?
When he announces tomorrow, the former Senator/actor will start with a clean slate in the hoof-in-mouth department. His Republican opponents have had six months to say stupid things, and they have made the most of them.
Rudy Giuliani had to back off telling Barbara Walters that his wife would attend cabinet meetings and, more recently, his claim to have spent more time at 9/11 Ground Zero than the firefighters.
Mitt Romney has been so busy that Ana Marie Cox on her Time blog had to expand his Top Ten Gaffes to eleven, including the easily disproved claim to have been a hunter all his life, attributing a Castro slogan to Free-Cuba fighters in front of audience of them, misstating French marriage laws, and making an admiring statement about Hitler’s energy policy, among so many others.
If Newt Gingrich decides to run, the floodgates of flubs would overflow.
But Thompson has the potential to catch up. He will no doubt ace his Jay Leno interview this week, but when he has to start defending his positions and his resume, Thompson’s tendency to be casual about such subjects as invading Iran is sure to emerge.
There will be ample opportunities to botch answers about his lobbying for a pro-abortion group, deposed Haitian autocrat Jean-Bertrand Aristide, a company trying to limit payments to asbestos victims as well as corporations producing a taxpayer-financed $1.7 billion “hole in the ground” for an abandoned nuclear reactor in Tennessee.
His private life could be fertile ground as well. Thompson has made light of his avid “chasing” as a bachelor but some of the ladies may surface to provoke uncomfortable questions.
His campaign has intimated his young wife is a lawyer and experienced political operative, but a closer look at the facts suggests a simpler story line: They met at a Tennessee barbecue, and she followed him to Washington where he got her a job. She did work in a law office but not as a lawyer.
Fred Thompson’s long teaser non-campaign has raised high expectations, but starting next week, he will only be the tallest of the Republican pygmies trying to play Ronald Reagan and make voters forget George Bush.
Rudy Giuliani had to back off telling Barbara Walters that his wife would attend cabinet meetings and, more recently, his claim to have spent more time at 9/11 Ground Zero than the firefighters.
Mitt Romney has been so busy that Ana Marie Cox on her Time blog had to expand his Top Ten Gaffes to eleven, including the easily disproved claim to have been a hunter all his life, attributing a Castro slogan to Free-Cuba fighters in front of audience of them, misstating French marriage laws, and making an admiring statement about Hitler’s energy policy, among so many others.
If Newt Gingrich decides to run, the floodgates of flubs would overflow.
But Thompson has the potential to catch up. He will no doubt ace his Jay Leno interview this week, but when he has to start defending his positions and his resume, Thompson’s tendency to be casual about such subjects as invading Iran is sure to emerge.
There will be ample opportunities to botch answers about his lobbying for a pro-abortion group, deposed Haitian autocrat Jean-Bertrand Aristide, a company trying to limit payments to asbestos victims as well as corporations producing a taxpayer-financed $1.7 billion “hole in the ground” for an abandoned nuclear reactor in Tennessee.
His private life could be fertile ground as well. Thompson has made light of his avid “chasing” as a bachelor but some of the ladies may surface to provoke uncomfortable questions.
His campaign has intimated his young wife is a lawyer and experienced political operative, but a closer look at the facts suggests a simpler story line: They met at a Tennessee barbecue, and she followed him to Washington where he got her a job. She did work in a law office but not as a lawyer.
Fred Thompson’s long teaser non-campaign has raised high expectations, but starting next week, he will only be the tallest of the Republican pygmies trying to play Ronald Reagan and make voters forget George Bush.
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